Energy

Good morning. A stormy pattern this week will lead to variability across the northern tier in week 1. Here's the European ensemble daily temperature anomaly forecast.  However, when looking at the aggregate weekly temperature departures, warmth will outweigh cold for most areas outside the northern Plains. This is supported by…

Good afternoon. Attached is the Sunday energy report discussing model guidance trends from over the weekend. A full blog post will be issued tomorrow morning covering pattern thoughts and demand ideas on the weather side of things. Have a great Sunday! ~Ed

Good morning. We recently updated our week 3 and 4 outlook, noting tremendous differences in model data and model analogs. With that said, the main drivers in the pattern continue to be the Pacific Ocean pattern as well as the tropical forcing in the Pacific, or the MJO. Normally, where…

Good morning. Guidance continues to be variable in week 1 as an active storm track through Midwest drives temperature changes across the northern tier. Here's the latest European ensemble temperature anomaly forecast through day 10. The aggregate anomaly forecast is quite warm nationally outside of the Plains. Demand forecasts respond…

Good afternoon! The biggest factor in the 2 week forecast is the active, amplified MJO wave heading toward phase 8 in the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. This is a colder signal in the Northeast, but nationally this is still a very warm signal. The report is below. Have a…

Good morning. The MJO continues to be a major driver in the pattern over the next week as the wave traverses the Pacific Ocean (phases 5-8) the pattern will be variable and quite stormy. Here's the latest MJO forecast through February 16th. Note how the wave remains in phase 8…

Below is the midday report, highlighting changes in midday guidance. If you have any questions please feel free to reach out, otherwise have a wonderful day. ~Ed

Good morning! We continue to watch a rather classic MJO wave propagation across the tropical Pacific  leading to a variable pattern over the next 2 weeks. Here's the latest MJO forecast - notice the wave moves swiftly through phases 4 through 8 over the next 15 days, promoting up and…