9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

Don't forget to sign-up for our official client winter webinar Wed, Oct 9th at 11amET here! BAMwx.com/client-webinar/ Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNILHwAEFEs&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-20-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Notable warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 5 – 8F above normal.  Keeping an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda that brought up to 32”+ of rain in Texas and will bring rain up into the Eastern Plains/Midwest later this week. Any cold fronts in the next week or two look to have…
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9-20-19 Early AM Energy Report: Further warming trends the past 24 hours. Major week 2 warmth. B.

9-20-19 Early AM Energy Report: Further warming trends the past 24 hours. Major week 2 warmth. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 9-20 AM Energy Check-Up Data has persistently trended warmer the past 24 hours. These changes mainly come in the Eastern US related to the –AAM and MJO Phase 1 which have warmed the model average for week 2 more than 5 points since yesterday morning.  Cooling demand compared to normal will steadily increase as we continue to drop normal values but stay steady or even rise the PWCDD forecast as warmth moves from the Central to Eastern US…
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9-19-19 European Weekly Analysis

Good Evening!  Here is your latest European Weekly analysis.  Have a blessed day!  -Matt Newest European Weekly continues to show an east US ridge with widespread warmth for much of October with a –PNA (west coast trough) bringing cooler temperatures for the West Coast.  Overall, this matches our temperature outlook for October as a –AAM continues to be the dominate pattern driver in the atmosphere.  This –AAM background state suggest a “La Nina” like set up with a west coast trough and western US ridge.  Our analogs of –AAM in October also suggest this look with widespread warmth across the…
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*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?*

*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?*

*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?* This afternoon ive been looking over some of our analogs that involve a similar MJO pattern to 2019 aka tropical forcing. One thing im growing increasingly concerned with is the possibility that MJO can stall out in phase 1 which has a statistically high correlation to very wet weather here in the Midwest in October. This pattern is actually somewhat very similar to Oct 2018. What catches my attention is these particular phases of the MJO are also notorious for Atlantic tropical activity and all it takes is 1 storm…
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9-19-19 Long-range: Discussing increasing concern for excessive rainfall / persisting dryness ahead + lingering warmth. K.

9-19-19 Long-range: Discussing increasing concern for excessive rainfall / persisting dryness ahead + lingering warmth. K.

***No new video this morning. We did include an updated notes slide below on our elevated concerns for excessive moisture risks across parts of the north-central to northern Plains especially. Have a blessed day -Kirk PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-19-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Notable warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 5 – 8F above normal.  Keeping an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda that brought up to 32”+ of rain in Texas and will bring rain up into the Eastern Plains/Midwest later…
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9-19-19 Early AM Energy Report: Record cooling demand for September. East US warmth persists. B.

9-19-19 Early AM Energy Report: Record cooling demand for September. East US warmth persists. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 9-19 AM Energy Check-Up No notable changes in the week 1 period. Drops in CDDs are generally related to the falling cooling demand normal, loss of yesterday’s high CDD day and precipitation in the Midwest.  Both the GEFS and the EPS trended warmer in the East/Southeast in week 2 and cooler in the western US further solidifying the pattern we are in. The strong –AAM and MJO Phases 8/1 will continue to dominate the pattern and lead to…
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9-18-19 Long-range: Sharing updated official October thoughts & warmer risks ahead. M.

9-18-19 Long-range: Sharing updated official October thoughts & warmer risks ahead. M.

Don't forget to sign-up for our official client winter webinar Wed, Oct 9th at 11amET here! BAMwx.com/client-webinar/ Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnG1gLzXYQs&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-18-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Major warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 8 – 12F above normal.  Keeping an eye on a tropical disturbance that will bring rain into Texas and up into the Eastern Plains/Midwest later this week. Any cold fronts in the next week or two look to have minimal impact on temperatures with brief periods of moderation rather…
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9-18-19 Early AM Energy Report: Warm pattern remains steady through end of September. B.

9-18-19 Early AM Energy Report: Warm pattern remains steady through end of September. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 9-18 AM Energy Check-Up The overnight EPS/GEFS took a step towards each other in terms of cooling demand but remain much different especially in the week 2 period.  The EPS did trend cooler late week 1 into week 2 mainly in the northeastern US. We do have our targeted cold fronts to deal with ~Sep. 21 – 24 and ~Sep. 26 – 28 and while these are not going to create a real dent in the overall pattern…
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*Preliminary first take on Winter 19-20*

*Preliminary first take on Winter 19-20* Today we wanted to share with you what our current research is telling us for the upcoming Winter season. As always outlooks in September are largely up for grabs but the things we look at today are more from a historical analog stand point. Please be sure to register for the Winter outlook webinar exclusive to paying clients Wed Oct 9th 11am EDT. Register here: https://bamwx.com/client-webinar/ Click here for the PDF of our Prelim Winter 19-20.
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9-17-19 Long-range: Warm signal persists ahead into late Sept…pattern turning more active as well? Latest details here. K.

9-17-19 Long-range: Warm signal persists ahead into late Sept…pattern turning more active as well? Latest details here. K.

***No updated video today...we've been working full-steam ahead on winter research this morning and will be sending out a separate update later today on our lates findings for review. Have a blessed day! -Kirk PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-17-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Major warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 8 – 12F above normal.  Keeping an eye on a tropical disturbance that will bring rain into Texas and up into the Eastern Plains later this week.  Any cold fronts in the next week or…
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