11-14-19 European Weekly Analysis

11-14-19 European Weekly Analysis

Good Evening!  Here is your latest European Weekly Analysis.  Have a blessed day!  -Matt HD Link (11-14-19 EWA) Newest European Weeklies came in warm for weeks 3, 4, and 5.  This seems to be a common theme for the EPS weekly as it consistently hints at a warm week 3, 4, and 5.  As stated from our previous reports, we are anticipating a colder than normal December and do not agree with the EPS weeklies.  Our research continues to suggest that we should see increased midlatitude blocking and therefore colder temperatures across the eastern US.  Our thoughts on a colder…
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11-14-19 PM Energy Report: GEFS trends even colder in week 2. Cold pattern re-emerging. B.

11-14-19 PM Energy Report: GEFS trends even colder in week 2. Cold pattern re-emerging. B.

Good Afternoon! Here is a look at our latest PM Energy Check-up: 11-14 PM Energy Check-upWeek 1:  Some slight warmer trends in the south ahead of the next storm system and some cooler trends west.  The GEFS has generally been a bit too cold on week 1 verifications as of late so the slight warmer trend on HDDs is valid.  We see no reason to change our forecast from this morning given this run. Week 2:  There were some big warmer trends in the Central US to start the week, which we agree with given the Pacific Jet. The GEFS also…
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11-14-19 Long-range: Despite model data our thoughts are durable cold looms ahead. Details here. M.

11-14-19 Long-range: Despite model data our thoughts are durable cold looms ahead. Details here. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/NeS8EZgAcVc PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-14-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Quiet pattern for much of the CONUS in the week 1 period.  We anticipate the further into week 2 we go the more potent impacts from the –NAO will become. This is one of the reasons we remain much cooler than the EPS. With the MJO working back into 8-1-2 and slowing, we believe the –AAM will become a bigger influencer with cooler risks in the NE. Major differences for both temperatures and precipitation in week 2. We believe the EPS…
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11-14-19 Early AM Energy Report: Major model differences in the week 2 period. Our latest analysis/forecast here. B.

11-14-19 Early AM Energy Report: Major model differences in the week 2 period. Our latest analysis/forecast here. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret 11-14 AM Energy Check-Up Following cooler trends on the EPS yesterday closer to our forecast – it has now gone in the opposite direction and warmed quite a bit in the Eastern US in the week 2 period. Meanwhile, the GEFS trended much colder in the East again setting up nearly a 30 point difference between the two ensembles for the week 2 period. The week 2 signal on the EPS is weak, signifying a very large spread in ensemble members.  Part of the discrepancy is likely related…
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11-13-19 PM Energy Report: Pattern coming into clearer view in the extended range. B.

11-13-19 PM Energy Report: Pattern coming into clearer view in the extended range. B.

Good Afternoon! Here is a look at our latest PM Energy Check-up: 11-13 PM Energy Check-up Week 1:  Some slight warmer trends in the week 1 period with a drop 1 point on the GEFS.  We were not quite as cold as the GEFS this morning – it’s been verifying a bit too cool in week 1 lately.  Looks like the GEFS trended a little warmer in the Central US which we also think is plausible. Week 2: Warmer trends in the southeast/S. Central US to start the week 2 period – more than likely related to MJO phase 8. We…
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11-13-19 Long-range: Discussing colder risks to the Dec forecast & how this is not 2018. M.

11-13-19 Long-range: Discussing colder risks to the Dec forecast & how this is not 2018. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/iXwuzGgTXV0 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-13-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Widespread record cold again this morning – many stations breaking all time November cold records. Warmer risks in week 2 look to be rather transient. Initially some warmth is possible in the Central US (strong Pacific Jet/MJO Phase 8) with cooler risks behind storm systems. We anticipate the further into week 2 we go for a more potent –NAO to become likely. For this reason we have cooled more of the Midwest for week 2.  With the MJO working back into…
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11-13-19 Early AM Energy Report: Breaking down differences between data in week 2. B.

11-13-19 Early AM Energy Report: Breaking down differences between data in week 2. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret 11-13 AM Energy Check-Up As anticipated we have lost quite a bit of points for week 1 as we have peaked our heating demand in this cold blast. HDDs will fall rather persistently beginning tomorrow as we work more mild pacific air into the CONUS.  The GEFS and the EPS remain very different in the extended range – and growing further apart – with some warmer trends on the EPS overnight and some notable cooler trends on the GEFS. The GEFS is now rather persistently cool in the…
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