Energy

Good morning. A strong Pacific Jet continues to lead to a a very warm pattern across the lower 48. This looks to continue through much of the next 2 weeks, with only a few small exceptions. Here's a look at the jet stream over the Pacific compared to normal. Notice…

Good afternoon. Below is the midday report highlighting midday changes in guidance. Have a great afternoon! ~Ed

Good morning. This morning's edition of the energy notes features additional information regarding the 16-30 day period. There are many questions with how the pattern will evolve, but a trend toward colder appears the most likely outcome as we progress toward the turn of the month. There remains many risks…

Good morning. A stormy pattern this week will lead to variability across the northern tier in week 1. Here's the European ensemble daily temperature anomaly forecast.  However, when looking at the aggregate weekly temperature departures, warmth will outweigh cold for most areas outside the northern Plains. This is supported by…

Good afternoon. Attached is the Sunday energy report discussing model guidance trends from over the weekend. A full blog post will be issued tomorrow morning covering pattern thoughts and demand ideas on the weather side of things. Have a great Sunday! ~Ed

Good morning. We recently updated our week 3 and 4 outlook, noting tremendous differences in model data and model analogs. With that said, the main drivers in the pattern continue to be the Pacific Ocean pattern as well as the tropical forcing in the Pacific, or the MJO. Normally, where…

Good morning. Guidance continues to be variable in week 1 as an active storm track through Midwest drives temperature changes across the northern tier. Here's the latest European ensemble temperature anomaly forecast through day 10. The aggregate anomaly forecast is quite warm nationally outside of the Plains. Demand forecasts respond…

Good afternoon! The biggest factor in the 2 week forecast is the active, amplified MJO wave heading toward phase 8 in the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. This is a colder signal in the Northeast, but nationally this is still a very warm signal. The report is below. Have a…