South America – Page 11

17

Jan

1-17-24 SA: Discussing big differences between data & research for pattern next 2-4 weeks. Details here. K.

Latest video forecast: https://youtu.be/MrIAFftWceY?hd=1 Current root zone soil moisture anomaly observation: Month to date precipitation % of normal: Euro vs GFS precipitation accumulation forecast over the next week (reference video for comparison): Here's what our favored historical analogs suggest for the first half of February (using the years of 1987…

15

Jan

By Matt Griffin

1-15-24 South America: Concerns data is too wet into Mato Grosso in week 2. MG.

Good afternoon! Here is your latest South America Forecast Update: https://youtu.be/5mZxkH-TZ2s

12

Jan

By Kirk Hinz

1-12-24 SA: C. Brazil Hotter/Drier Next 2 Weeks…Discussing Late Month Wetter Risks vs Research. K.

Good Friday morning, hoping you all are doing well! Today we discuss the drier/hotter risks for central Brazil over the next 2 weeks + the data trying to return rains in that same area late in the month to early February. We also discuss what history/research tells us could happen…

10

Jan

By Kirk Hinz

1-10-24 SA: Timely rain verification update + discussing hot/drier risks ahead for central Brazil. K.

Good Wednesday morning! Today we recap the first ~1/3rd of January timely rainfall verification across Brazil + the central Brazil hotter/drier risks returning quickly (and rolling forward well). All details in the video below, please let us know if you have any questions! -Kirk Today's video: https://youtu.be/yl3uOGT-MZk?hd=1 Observed rainfall for…

08

Jan

By Kirk Hinz

1-8-24 SA: Discussing short-term rains + January pattern evolving drier ahead. K.

Good Monday morning! Today we discuss the latest on rainfall observations over the weekend + the last 7 days, and take a detailed-dive into the pattern ahead over the next 2-3 weeks vs how the MJO is evolving (and what history tells us). Latest video analysis is below, have a…

04

Jan

By Matt Griffin

1-4-24 South America: Rains the next ~7 days before drier risks loom later into JAN. MG.

Good morning! Here is your latest South America Forecast Update: https://youtu.be/tCyPzdtik5w Here is a look at the preferred week 1 rainfall amounts vs normal week 1: Here is a look at the preferred week 1 temperatures vs normal week 1: Here is a look at the preffered rainfall amounts vs…

02

Jan

By Kirk Hinz

1-2-24 SA: Recapping December + Noting Big Drier Trends on the Data. K.

*Good Tuesday morning, and Happy New Year! Today's video is a big one, recapping December, touching on the last 5-7 days of observed rainfall, update on timely rains ahead this week and concerning drier trends on all the overnight data for the next 2-4 weeks ahead. Please let us know…

29

Dec

By Matt Griffin

12-29-23 South America: Discussing Timely Rainfall Threat Ahead. K.

Good morning! Here is your latest South America Forecast Update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmNZEWwCUbI Past 7 day rainfall amounts: We are currently eyeing a wetter risk into early January in the areas highlighted in green below. The pattern is expected to revert to drier thereafter. Here is a look the our preferred analogs…

28

Dec

By Kirk Hinz

12-28-23 SA: Detailed January pattern analysis today. K.

*Today we discuss how the MJO is rolling forward vs 3-4 days ago (more progressive into phases 3-4), recent rainfall verifications from the past 5 days, breaking down data differences and how they are rolling forward over the next 2 weeks and sharing our top analogs for January as a…

26

Dec

By Kirk Hinz

12-26-23 SA: Verifying recent rainfall + concerning trend for Central Brazil into Jan. K.

Good morning, hope you all are well and had a blessed Christmas! Today we spend time recapping recent rainfall verifications, which model his handling this pattern better as we roll-forward, and how are things trending for January across SA. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to reach out!…