4-19-19 Early AM Energy Check-up: Shift back to warmer changes on the data overnight…latest thoughts here. K.

4-19-19 Early AM Energy Check-up: Shift back to warmer changes on the data overnight…latest thoughts here. K.

Don't forget, starting Monday we switch over to cooling degree forecasts...have a blessed day! -Kirk PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 4-19-19 AM Energy Check-Up Discussion: Models have gone back and forth on what they have been trying to see as another upper-level low pressure system in the East late next week, with overnight runs trending warmer due to losing that feature a bit and not lingering storm-induced cold as long as previously suggested. We’ve kept our forecasts warmer consistently this week vs data knowing their biases to want to hang on to cold since early winter…
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4-18-19 IL-IN-OH: Rains ramp up tonight with flooding threat….system spins over area through Saturday…details here. N.

4-18-19 IL-IN-OH: Rains ramp up tonight with flooding threat….system spins over area through Saturday…details here. N.

Afternoon Video Update: http://youtu.be/0nN1tDNifpA?hd=1 Remaining total precipitation guidance over the next 2 days is below...with heavy rainfall ramping up late tonight especially into Friday as the upper-level low pressure system stalls out: As mentioned in this morning's videos, we think it's not out of the questions for some snow to mix in with the rain after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning. Given uncertainty still is high regarding this band at this timeframe and the wintry implications, it's still not out of the question this circle could shift further back east and/or be mitigated if surface temps aren't as low…
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4-18-19 PM Energy Check-up: Discussing modeled cooler changes on latest guidance. K.

4-18-19 PM Energy Check-up: Discussing modeled cooler changes on latest guidance. K.

Here is the latest PM Energy Check-up forecasts below. *Note* this is data from the GEFS, the maps are not our official forecast. For our official outlooks, please see our GWHDD forecast in the report below or our updated week’s 1 and 2 maps on our website! Have a great day! – Kirk Week 1: We’ve seen slight cooler changes for the week 1 timeframe, as the models are trying to figure out the additional upper-level low pressure system late next week…similar to what’s currently on the radar right now in the east-central US. We increased our HDD slightly to account…
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4-18-19 Long-range: Latest check on April pattern progression + updated thoughts into Summer. M.

4-18-19 Long-range: Latest check on April pattern progression + updated thoughts into Summer. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYqnLT1x5pE&feature=youtu.be PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 4-18-19 Long range Weeks 1/2 temps: Forecast Blurb: Another tick warmer here today for week 1…and by the looks of how things are trending in week 2 we will be hard pressed to change up the pattern away from widespread warmer than normal temps across the Country, barring the southern US to Valley Regions where an upper-level low pressure system will skew the anomalies more “normal”. We reduce the amount of cooler than normal air even further to end April and open up May as we flood the…
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4-18-19 Missouri: Heavy / strong storms remain focused in the SE parts of the state…otherwise dry & warmer weather sets in thru Easter Weekend. K.

4-18-19 Missouri: Heavy / strong storms remain focused in the SE parts of the state…otherwise dry & warmer weather sets in thru Easter Weekend. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/b61LabDy6nY?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours as of 5amCT: Remaining precipitation over the next 48 hours is below...a couple strong storms and heavy precipitation on the order of 1-2"+ is in store for SE parts of the state today into tonight: Wind forecast guidance next 4 days: Butler, MO temps / precip next 10 days: Maryville, MO temps / precip next 10 days: Columbia, MO temps / precip next 10 days: Poplar Bluff, MO temps / precip next 10 days:
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4-18-19 Early AM Energy Check-up: Big warmer signals continue into early May…eyeing trends above the normal cooling demand ahead. K.

4-18-19 Early AM Energy Check-up: Big warmer signals continue into early May…eyeing trends above the normal cooling demand ahead. K.

Have a blessed day! -Kirk PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 4-18-19 AM Energy Check-Up Discussion: Not a lot of change in the data for both weeks 1 and 2 to close out April and open up May, with very warm weeks ahead for the Country with the exception of the South, who stays much above normal in precip both weeks. Not much left for discussion that hasn’t already been mentioned this week with the big time El Nino influences here bringing warmth expanding widespread across the US and wetter risks south. Given the lack of much…
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4-17-19 Long-range: Recapping the April pattern evolution & the implications heading into May. K.

4-17-19 Long-range: Recapping the April pattern evolution & the implications heading into May. K.

***No updated video today, as our thoughts in the video yesterday remain the same with how the data continues to trend warmer. If you missed yesterday's video, we've included it below. Let us know if you have any questions, have a blessed day! -Kirk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIAdMiNC8sw&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 Temp forecast next 2 weeks: Week 1: Another tick warmer here today for week 1…and by the looks of how things are trending in week 2 we will be hard pressed to change up the pattern away from widespread warmer than normal temps across the Country, barring the southern US where we target precipitation-induced cooler…
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4-17-19 Missouri: Targeting severe storm & heavy rainfall potential tonight into Thursday. K.

4-17-19 Missouri: Targeting severe storm & heavy rainfall potential tonight into Thursday. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/cAs8GTcKp-o?hd=1 Late tonight into Thursday we have elevated risks for strong to severe storms including isolated tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. We mentioned in today's video it's possible the "Enhanced" (orange color) risk gets pushed more into Missouri possibly from Joplin to Columbia given the very favorable ingredients: Total precipitation guidance through Thursday:
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