Agriculture – Page 407

12-26-18 Long Range: Volatile forecast period persists into early 2019… discussing risks into Mid-January. B.

26

Dec

12-26-18 Long Range: Volatile forecast period persists into early 2019… discussing risks into Mid-January. B.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRo-LMsikWg&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link to open in HD): 12-26 Long-Range Analysis Images: East coast warmth will persist into the New Year as we continue a slow progression through MJO phase 5. Strong storm system the next few days in the Plains aids in the warmth in the…

12-23-18 Week Ahead: Data seeing pattern transition in week 2 with continued MJO progression. B.

23

Dec

By Bret Walts

12-23-18 Week Ahead: Data seeing pattern transition in week 2 with continued MJO progression. B.

For questions locally reach out to [email protected]! Have a blessed day! - Bret Good afternoon, here's a reminder of our Holiday Schedule! 12-23 Week Ahead Outlook Temperature Discussion: Week 1 temperatures clearly reflect the amplified and slow moving pulse through MJO phase 5. Though we likely spend several days (potentially…

12-21-18 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + Jan/Feb analysis…confidence on big cold ahead continues to increase. Latest here. K.

21

Dec

By Vince Bryan

12-21-18 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + Jan/Feb analysis…confidence on big cold ahead continues to increase. Latest here. K.

*This will be the last video analysis until next Wednesday after Christmas. We will have of course our week ahead outlook on Sunday to review. From all of us at BAM, we wish you a very Merry Christmas...we are very thankful for your constant support in allowing us to do…

12-20-18 Long-range: Discussing recent modeled colder changes & more great research on the AO/NAO from the SSWe. M.

20

Dec

By Vince Bryan

12-20-18 Long-range: Discussing recent modeled colder changes & more great research on the AO/NAO from the SSWe. M.

Holiday schedule: Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt-iG5zU1PQ PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 12-20-18 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Nearing our lowest point in GWHDD demand. Following the storm system moving through the Ohio Valley today and eventually the East Coast, some cooler air will move through the Eastern…

12-19-18 Long-range: Updated stratospheric warming event research and potential impacts to the January pattern. K.

19

Dec

By Vince Bryan

12-19-18 Long-range: Updated stratospheric warming event research and potential impacts to the January pattern. K.

***No updated video today...below is our research this morning showing central-based El Nino's that featured a sudden stratospheric warming event. 2 of these 3 years (1970,2004 January) showed similarities in the angular momentum. The takeaway here is, the SSWe resulting in a "split" of the Polar Vortex in these years (1970,…

12-18-18 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast…flip-flop alert on ECMWF Weeklies. K.

18

Dec

By Vince Bryan

12-18-18 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast…flip-flop alert on ECMWF Weeklies. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SU-eB23LpN4 PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 12-18-18 Long-Range Analysis Images: Synopsis: Split flow continues to lead to a quiet pattern for the Central US in week 1. A storm system will phase later this week and lead to rain risks in the Eastern Ohio…

12-17-18 Long-range: Discussing latest thoughts on MJO/Polar Vortex influences on pattern into early Jan. K.

17

Dec

By Vince Bryan

12-17-18 Long-range: Discussing latest thoughts on MJO/Polar Vortex influences on pattern into early Jan. K.

*Longer video today, wanted to reiterate our special update that we issued on Saturday and the evolution of the pattern late month into early Jan. Key takeaways in the forecast that we need to watch: the speed of moving the MJO from phase 4 to 5, 6 and 7 and…

12-16-18 Week Ahead: Warmth persists the next few weeks, but pattern becomes more ripe for winter storms. B.

16

Dec

By Bret Walts

12-16-18 Week Ahead: Warmth persists the next few weeks, but pattern becomes more ripe for winter storms. B.

For questions locally reach out to [email protected]! Have a blessed day! - Bret 12-16-18 Week Ahead Outlook Temperature Forecast Blurb: We remain in the core of December warmth for much of the country with MJO Phase ¾ warmth and warmth related to a poleward shift in the North Pacific Jet.…

12-15-18 Special Update. We got it wrong on the flip back to cold. Heres why. M.

15

Dec

By Chief Meteorologist Michael Clark

12-15-18 Special Update. We got it wrong on the flip back to cold. Heres why. M.

12-15-18 Special Update. We got it wrong on the flip back to cold. Heres why. M. For those of you who are new with us roughly 2 of about every 10 calls we make are going to fail. This is one of those times. When that happens I make it…

12-14-18 Long-range: Weeks 3-4 outlook largely a research-based forecast today. Our reasoning why we are colder than data here. M.

14

Dec

By Vince Bryan

12-14-18 Long-range: Weeks 3-4 outlook largely a research-based forecast today. Our reasoning why we are colder than data here. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWBXgw-XvR4&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 12-14-18 Long-Range Analysis Images: Intro slide text: Split flow leads to quiet Central US for the next ~7 Days with the northern jet displaced well to the north and a weaker sub-tropical jet related to sub-tropic –AAM anomalies. …