8-19-19 PM Ag Weather Report: Severe weather risks tonight/tomorrow. Cooler air arrives later this week. B.

8-19-19 PM Ag Weather Report: Severe weather risks tonight/tomorrow. Cooler air arrives later this week. B.

Good Friday afternoon! Here is a look at your latest PM Ag Weather Check-up! Have a great rest of your Friday!  8-19 AGWX Afternoon Potential for a strong storm cluster with locally heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and large hail tonight and tomorrow. This cluster looks to be strongest in Iowa overnight/tomorrow morning and while it may weaken a touch as it pushes eastward – as it moves into higher instability tomorrow afternoon there will be a risk for large hail and damaging winds in parts Illinois and Indiana.  Big discrepancies on the timing of the cold front later this…
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8-19-19 Trenton Thunder: Timing out storm chances today – scattered chances Tuesday/Wednesday. B.

8-19-19 Trenton Thunder: Timing out storm chances today – scattered chances Tuesday/Wednesday. B.

Today's Video:  http://youtu.be/tUTbdpFHlXw?hd=1 Good morning everyone! The radar is quiet to start the day, but as we work into the afternoon storm chances will increase. I think that especially after 1:30PM some isolated storm chances can develop and then between 3:30 - 6PM a broken line of storms will begin to move through the region. These storms could contain some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall but should quickly push eastward and leave us mostly dry into your game time:  We cannot rule out some scattered shower/storm chances on Tuesday, but we don't anticipate these to be widespread. These look…
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8-19-19 Early AM Energy Report: Analyzing Central US cooler risks to end the month, west coast warmth. B.

8-19-19 Early AM Energy Report: Analyzing Central US cooler risks to end the month, west coast warmth. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 8-19 AM Energy Check-Up As anticipated, the week 1 cooling demand has dropped quite a bit since Friday as we've worked past some of the hotter days. After somewhat volatile trends on Friday and Saturday, data has settled on the cooler idea from Friday over the past several runs. The initial blast of cooler air later this week is related to the recurving typhoon last week. There remains the chance of a couple days of transient warmth before…
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8-16-19 Early AM Energy Report: Data seeing impacts of Typhoon recurve, notable cooler trends continue. B.

8-16-19 Early AM Energy Report: Data seeing impacts of Typhoon recurve, notable cooler trends continue. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 8-16 AM Energy Check-Up Overnight data – specifically the EPS – continued to trend much cooler late week 1 and into early week 2 . The big cooler changes over the last 24 hours are undoubtedly related to the recurve of Typhoon Korsa in the West Pacific. If anything, we believe there could be room to trend a little cooler with this front as we get closer so we’re going to stay aggressively on the lower side of…
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8-15-19 Early AM Energy Report: Discussing risks to the forecast and signals to end August. B.

8-15-19 Early AM Energy Report: Discussing risks to the forecast and signals to end August. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 8-15 AM Energy Check-Up Overnight European data trended much stronger with a trough/cold front to begin week 1 – but remains warm in most of the primary cooling areas. We still believe that there is potential for cooler trends based on the recurving typhoon. We believe that the Aleutian Low that develops related to the typhoon will aid in a stronger downstream +PNA and subsequent cool shot in the Central US/Midwest. The EPS generally keeps areas in the…
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8-14-19 PM Ag Weather Report: Analyzing mid-day trends and precipitation forecasts. B.

8-14-19 PM Ag Weather Report: Analyzing mid-day trends and precipitation forecasts. B.

Good afternoon! Below is your latest PM Ag Weather Report! 8-14 AGwx Report Another storm cluster will likely develop in the Plains overnight tonight and tomorrow morning with damaging wind gusts the main threat.  Scattered showers are still possible across the Ohio Valley today but are very hit or miss. A few cooler days likely to close out the work week for parts of the Northern and Eastern Ag Belt – but temperatures will quickly rise into the weekend and early next week with an expanding ridge of high pressure. With the ridge south, wetter risks are favored in the…
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8-14-19 Early AM Energy Report: Warmer trends on overnight data. Discussing end of August pattern. B.

8-14-19 Early AM Energy Report: Warmer trends on overnight data. Discussing end of August pattern. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 8-14 AM Energy Check-Up Volatile trends continue on the data the last 24 hours as they struggle to resolve the exact impacts of a recurving typhoon and have wobbled back and forth on the idea of some kind of upper-level low next week. We were never on-board with the upper-level low (cooler risk) and data backed way off the idea overnight leading to substantial warmer trends in the 5-10 day on the EPS. The 18th – 22nd continues…
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8-13-19 Long Range: Analysis of the pattern influences from Typhoon Korsa. Looking at forecast ideas into September. B.

8-13-19 Long Range: Analysis of the pattern influences from Typhoon Korsa. Looking at forecast ideas into September. B.

Today's Video: http://youtu.be/CkUGyQbE5To?hd=1 Today's Slides (Click for PDF Below):  8-13 Long Range Analysis Up/Down pattern continues. Warmer weather to start the week with cooler weather behind a cold front mid-late week.  Heat returns next week for about a ~5 day period leading to high cooling demand and warmer than normal temperatures for most of the Ag Belt.  Flash Flooding in parts of S. Illinois this morning with heavy rain also ongoing in parts Ohio. Increasing likelihood of a recurving typhoon ~Aug. 15/16 east of Korea. This is a strong cooler signal that would correlate 6-10 days later. Favoring Aug. 23…
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8-13-19 Early AM Energy Report: Favorable data trends towards BAM forecast overnight. B.

8-13-19 Early AM Energy Report: Favorable data trends towards BAM forecast overnight. B.

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 8-13-19 AM Energy Check-Up The overnight American data trended substantially warmer in the 5-10 day timeframe where it was as much as 9F cooler than the EPS on yesterday’s 12z runs. The EPS has trended slightly cooler – but still features widespread warmth but in a less intense nature. These trends closer to one another certainly help give us more confidence that the 5-10 day features more widespread warmth and high cooling demand. Some of this high cooling…
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