Author: Bret Walts

Today's PM Energy Report:  12-10 PM Energy Check up Week 1:  The week 1 forecast trended colder in the Central US mainly behind a storm at the end of the week 1 period.  The GEFS is trying to suggest the influence of another tropospheric polar vortex at the end of the week leading to colder than normal temperatures. Given the tendency for the GEFS to be overdone with it’s cold blasts, we are going to stay warmer in the week 1 period. Week 2:  The week 1 forecast trended colder in the Central US mainly behind a storm at the…

Good morning everyone! Here is your latest AM Energy Check-Up:  12-10 AM Energy Check-Up EPS trended quite a bit colder in the short-term on the overnight run with colder trends behind a storm system this weekend and early next week. It is also trying to put a snow pack down in the OH/TN Valley so need to be cautious with it’s solution in those areas. That storm track is far from set in stone so EPS could be a bit too cold with HDDs because of it’s snow feedback if the storm doesn’t verify.  These trends continue the theme the…

Today's PM Energy Report:  12-9 PM Energy Check-up Week 1:  Week 1 GEFS warmer quite a bit in terms of HDDs closer to our AM forecast.  Generally speaking some slight warmer trends on the East Coast persisted In week 1 with some cooler trends in the Central US behind a cold front at the end of the week.  GEFS has continued to have a cold bias so staying below it’s forecast seems reasonable. No changes to our forecast. Week 2:  The GEFS has been so bad in week 2 at this point it’s difficult to take any of it’s ideas…

Good morning everyone! Here is your latest AM Energy Check-Up:  12-9 AM Energy Check-Up Model chaos continues with major warming trends over the weekend. The arctic blast anticipated for this week has basically become a one day affair with mild air returning quickly after the cold front. What was initially anticipated as a period that could begin to see a jet retraction has seen +EAMT persist allowing for the Pacific jet to undercut the N. Pacific high and flood mild air into the CONUS. The +EAMT does look to weaken this week, but it is unclear if it is enough…

Good morning!  Here is your AM Energy Report!  Have a blessed day!  ~Bret 12-6 AM Energy Check-Up Week 1 now features both the warm up and the arctic blast related to the tropospheric polar vortex. This averages out to allow near normal heating demand and temperatures colder than normal in the North-Central and Northeastern US. As a +PNA builds the West Coast will be warmer than normal and the southeast will average out above normal given some storm induced warmth.  As we work into week 2 there remain major differences between the GEFS/EPS in terms of heating demand. Both have remained…

Good afternoon!  Here is your latest PM Energy Report Report.  Have a blessed day!  - Bret 12-5 PM Energy Check-up Week 1: Slight cooler trends in the South-Central US in week 1 – but overall no notable changes. Cooler trends just look to be related to stronger cold air behind the front.  Given the storm induced warmth risks ahead of this system – we are not going to make any changes to our outlook and remain just below the GEFS. Week 2:  Overall solid trends on this run of the GEFS with warmer trends in the Central US and Pacific…