11-14-19 European Weekly Analysis

11-14-19 European Weekly Analysis

Good Evening!  Here is your latest European Weekly Analysis.  Have a blessed day!  -Matt HD Link (11-14-19 EWA) Newest European Weeklies came in warm for weeks 3, 4, and 5.  This seems to be a common theme for the EPS weekly as it consistently hints at a warm week 3, 4, and 5.  As stated from our previous reports, we are anticipating a colder than normal December and do not agree with the EPS weeklies.  Our research continues to suggest that we should see increased midlatitude blocking and therefore colder temperatures across the eastern US.  Our thoughts on a colder…
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11-14-19 Long-range: Despite model data our thoughts are durable cold looms ahead. Details here. M.

11-14-19 Long-range: Despite model data our thoughts are durable cold looms ahead. Details here. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/NeS8EZgAcVc PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-14-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Quiet pattern for much of the CONUS in the week 1 period.  We anticipate the further into week 2 we go the more potent impacts from the –NAO will become. This is one of the reasons we remain much cooler than the EPS. With the MJO working back into 8-1-2 and slowing, we believe the –AAM will become a bigger influencer with cooler risks in the NE. Major differences for both temperatures and precipitation in week 2. We believe the EPS…
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11-13-19 Long-range: Discussing colder risks to the Dec forecast & how this is not 2018. M.

11-13-19 Long-range: Discussing colder risks to the Dec forecast & how this is not 2018. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/iXwuzGgTXV0 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-13-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Widespread record cold again this morning – many stations breaking all time November cold records. Warmer risks in week 2 look to be rather transient. Initially some warmth is possible in the Central US (strong Pacific Jet/MJO Phase 8) with cooler risks behind storm systems. We anticipate the further into week 2 we go for a more potent –NAO to become likely. For this reason we have cooled more of the Midwest for week 2.  With the MJO working back into…
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11-12-19 Long Range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast and analogs into early December. Analyzing cooler risks. B.

11-12-19 Long Range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast and analogs into early December. Analyzing cooler risks. B.

No new video update today. Please read through the updated forecast discussion for latest details! - Bret PDF report (click link below to open in HD): 11-12 Long-Range AnalysisWidespread snow accumulations in the Ohio Valley yesterday ranging from 1 – 5” generally. 168+ daily record cold low temperatures have been set this morning.  Warmer risks in week 2 look to be rather transient. Initially some warmth is possible in the Central US (strong Pacific Jet/MJO Phase 8) with cooler risks behind storm systems. We still think week 2 can be more active – this looks to occur especially as we initially…
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11-11-19 Long Range: Analyzing risks to the forecast into December, primary pattern drivers. B.

11-11-19 Long Range: Analyzing risks to the forecast into December, primary pattern drivers. B.

Today's Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYb-iM-CIiU&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF report (click link below to open in HD): 11-11 Long-Range Analysis Record cold each of the next 3 days moving from west to east.  Accumulating snowfall today for much of the Ohio Valley and Midwest.  Data has is showing a warmer pattern as we work into week 2 and especially the 10-15 day period.  The Pacific Jet is forecasted to be very strong which will flood warm air into the United States.  The –AAM state would generally favor cooler risks which was the basis behind our cooler idea from Friday, however, given the Niño driven Pacific…
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11-10-19 Week Ahead Outlook

Good afternoon!  Here is your latest Week Ahead Outlook.  Have a blessed day! - Matt HD Link: (11-10-19 Week Ahead Report) Temperatures: A  very cold week 1 is expected behind our storm system that will bring some accumulating snowfall across portions of the Midwest.  An artic high pressure system will be the dominate feature during this time.  We do have a few storm dates during this time which will allow for some transient warmth out ahead of these systems with more reinforcing air in their wake.  Meanwhile, a persisting upper level ridge will continue to keep the west coast warm. …
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11-8-19 Long-range: Discussing similarities/differences vs 2018 pattern into Dec & going against the data for week’s 3/4. K.

11-8-19 Long-range: Discussing similarities/differences vs 2018 pattern into Dec & going against the data for week’s 3/4. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/NgEMSJQbPe8?hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-8-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Record cold temperatures this morning in spots with additional record cold possible early next week. Cold will linger into week 2 and slowly shift eastward as it begins to moderation throughout the period. Overall colder than normal pattern for week 2. Would not be surprised to see the pattern start to get more active into Mid-Month with major SOI fluctuations and more low pressure in the North Pacific. As we work into this more active pattern with MJO phase 8, would…
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11-7-19 Long-range: Breaking down the late Nov to Dec pattern evolution & differences vs. last year. K.

11-7-19 Long-range: Breaking down the late Nov to Dec pattern evolution & differences vs. last year. K.

Today's video (please watch the whole video to the end!): http://youtu.be/EjgVtw-bTGg?hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-7-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Major blast of cold air arrives early next week. Cold blast is reinforced by Super Typhoon Halong that will recurve and impact the jet stream the next few days. Latest MJO analogs show continued support for colder risks beyond the initial cold impacts of the typhoon recurve. We think the cold can seep further East this time due to the MJO and a further east recurve.  Would not be surprised to see the…
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11-6-19 Long-range: Widespread cold stays steady for the next 2 weeks…increased wintry weather risks on the rise ahead? K.

11-6-19 Long-range: Widespread cold stays steady for the next 2 weeks…increased wintry weather risks on the rise ahead? K.

***No updated video analysis today. No major changes in the forecast vs yesterday. Please refer to the updated slides below for official outlooks and discussions. -Kirk PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Another major blast of cold air arrives early next week. Cold blast is reinforced by Super Typhoon Halong that will recurve and impact the jet stream the next few days. Latest MJO analogs show continued support for colder risks even beyond the cold impacts of the typhoon recurve. We think the cold can seep further East this time…
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11-5-19 Long-range: Pattern break down for mid/late November into early Dec…data still not *cold* enough? Details here. K.

11-5-19 Long-range: Pattern break down for mid/late November into early Dec…data still not *cold* enough? Details here. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/h3Us--oN3w0?hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-5-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Much below normal temperatures for the Central US into the Ohio Valley this week. Current –AAM combined with Polar Vortex location major drivers – though the AAM is expected to rise in the coming days.  Forecast has trended colder due to emergence of recurving typhoon Halong in the W. Pacific later this week.  The typical warmer risks associated with the +AAM do not look to materialize due to this typhoon and the Polar Vortex.  We think the cold can seep further…
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