Agriculture

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUOC6yqD4UI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-15 Long-Range Analysis A bit of a drier pattern as we work through the next week as the storm track shifts to the south thanks to in part to cold air briefly further east and a weakly –NAO.  Major cold continues west of the Mississippi River with notable cold continuing in the West US allowing heating demand to remain above normal.  Overall, we don’t anticipate this pattern breaking down through the end of the month, though we need to watch for a briefly neutral/+PNA to end the month,…

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8bmf9ReAGU&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-13-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Above normal heating demand for the week 1 period as we continue to rise following the last few below normal demand days. We still have a few lower demand days to work through before we rise above normal as the western US continues to be well below normal in temperatures and the cold air bleeds into the Midwest/Ohio Valley behind storms at times. Data trended much warmer overall overnight last night with the GEFS losing nearly 40 points over the past 18…

*No updated video analysis today, no change in our thoughts of the pattern going forward. We did, however, include an in-depth extra notes slide below so make sure to check that out to get an idea of the pattern progression ahead.* -Kirk PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-12-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Cold shots behind storms systems will continue to be prevalent for areas of on the line of the sharp thermal gradient that continues to linger across the heart of the country with southeast ridging and major cold in the northern and western US. …

*Please note that the temperature departures are in degrees Celsius.* Discussion: The European Weeklies suggest that below normal temperature anomalies will dominate the vast majority of the country during the week 3 timeframe, with a heavy emphasis on significant cold bleeding across the Northwestern US into the Great Plains. Precipitation is depicted to run near normal with chances of drier trends showing up across the AG Belt. The only area to run above average in the precipitation department likely will be the Southeastern US as a stout upper-level trough digs into the Eastern US, shunting enhanced precipitation risks south. The…

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr49ZtDQVxU PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-8-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Several areas saw severe flash flooding yesterday in association with extremely heavy rainfall that trained over portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.  Cool shot of air behind this system will be relatively short-lived as additional warmth develops ahead of storm systems next week in the Eastern US.  -PNA pattern will persist over the next few weeks as supported by previous –MT no signals on data yet to break down this pattern with EAMT still negative as of February 5th.  The MJO also…

Today's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJY19SmRvrc&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF slides: (click link below to open in HD): 2-7-19 Long Range Slides Images: Heavy rain and a slight chance of severe weather today in portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and the Mississippi Valley regions.  Isolated tornadoes possible with strong winds the biggest threat. Storm Track moving forward will favor snow chances in the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes with heavy rain chances in the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley. Major warmer trends overnight on data mainly in the week 2 period as data strengthened the southeastern U.S. ridge allowing warmer air to bleed further…

***Due to the spring webinar today at 11amET there is no updated video analysis. We highly encourage everyone to attend or at least sign up at BAMwx.com/webinar to in case you miss it, a recording will be sent to your email later today. No one is automatically signed up for this so please take a second to sign up and join us today during lunch! We'd love if everyone told a friend or colleague as well to help folks understand what goes into a seasonal forecast and to note what the risks are heading into the spring and summer. Have…