January Heating Demand Highest in More than a Decade
By Bret Walts
Heaters across the United States will be stressed over the next two weeks as another visit from the tropospheric polar vortex brings the coldest air of the season to much of the Central and Eastern US. While the upcoming arctic blast may not necessarily be record-breaking – the frequency, location and duration of cold blasts throughout this month is noteworthy.
Arctic air arriving late this weekend and early next week will be the third such blast of 2025 so far, while previous winters – aside from February of 2021 – struggled to see much of any durable cold for the lower-48. In fact, the current CONUS average departure from normal temperature as of January 15th sits at -2.42F which would be the coldest since 2011.
This type of durable cold has major implications from an energy perspective. US natural gas futures rose to $4 for the first time since January 2023 with the price having nearly doubled from this time last year. One metric tracked carefully to measure heating demand across the United States is through Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (GWHDDs). GWHDDs provide a measure of potential natural gas demand based on temperatures across the United States and are weighted based on population. Simply put, colder temperatures in higher population areas will drive GWHDDs and natural gas usage up.
Halfway through January, heating demand is estimated to rise to 1050 for the month – which would place 2025 behind only 2014 in the past 30 years. Only one year, 2022, has exceeded 1000 GWHDDs in the past 10 years.
The high GWHDD demand ultimately represents the stress and work heaters across the United States will have gone through in January 2025. For many, it’s likely your heating bill will be higher, and your system will be pushed more than it has in a decade.
BAMWX meteorologists have evaluated and updated customers regarding how this pattern will evolve into February along with the implications on energy and heating demand within the Clarity weather platform. To learn more about Clarity’s features and tools, inquire at BAMWX.com/book-a-demo.