Quite the impressive late November blizzard that moved through the central U.S. I put together some quick stats for a few Midwestern cities:
Here is a look at snowfall totals from this storm across the central U.S. over the past 3 days:
Our clients were aware of this storm more than a week in advance. Here is a graphic we sent on our Wednesday morning forecast. For 5 days out, it doesn’t get much better regarding our targeted area given the large model differences.
If you want to know how rare a November blizzard is for these areas, look no further than this map below. An interesting study was done by Jill S. M. Coleman and Robert M. Schwartz regarding blizzard climatology in the U.S. As you can see, for some of these locations in Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois this was their first blizzard on record.
The storm that brought the blizzard has brought down a very deep trough across the central/eastern U.S., kicking up the snow shower machine across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The air aloft is very cold for this time of year, and as weak pulses of lift move through aloft, these act to “squeeze” moisture out of the air producing these snow showers.
When you get a deep upper-level trough such as this, it’s easy to produce snow showers that the models struggle to show on their forecast radars. Can’t recall how many times this happens around here in the winter! There were a lot of forecasts saying that the snow flurries would end yesterday evening, with no mention of snow showers this morning because models weren’t spitting out anything. If you work with snow removal, you could of been greatly caught off guard, especially if you deal with zero-tolerance lots. Our clients were made aware in our 6am update yesterday of the persisting snow showers expected last night into early Wednesday. This was written in our forecast discussion:
“A few light snow showers to snow flurries possible along and south of I-70 after sunset tonight into the overnight as strong cold air settles into the Region, squeezing out any additional moisture left in the atmosphere. The focus turns mainly to lake effect snow showers for a long period of time tonight basically through Wednesday across especially NE IN, southern MI into northern OH. Additional refreeze potential is possible tomorrow night into Wednesday morning on surfaces left untreated especially across IN/OH locations”
Your free apps didn’t alert you until 5:30PM yesterday, and suggested the snow would end during the evening. You can get free weather if you want to be 12 hours behind the game. If you run a business relying on the weather, it’s extremely impractical if you aren’t using an accurate, local weather service like us. Not to mention with our service you can ask us questions anytime 24/7. This makes your job much easier!! Inquire at bamwx.com/contact-us or [email protected]!
Not only is getting an accurate short-term forecast important, but knowing what to expect in the longer range can be a huge value for your operation. Research comes first and computer models come second. Having an idea of what to expect weeks ahead will keep you prepared and ahead of everyone else relying on their free apps. We breakdown our forecasts in easy to understand powerpoint slides and in a video format, and again you can use our on-call service to pick our brains and get clarification whenever you need it! We want people to know there IS a more accurate source out there than what you are getting now!
Moving on, wanted to briefly take a look at additional snow threats showing up over the next several days.
Another strong storm system is expected to move through the central U.S. this weekend, bringing heavy snow risks for parts of the northern and central Plains, and heavy rain/thunder risks into the Ohio Valley.
Another storm follows up a few days later, but very low confidence as a lot will depend how the first storm evolves. FV3 GFS shown below:
You can stay on top of things by signing up for our local forecasts! We want to help you have peace of mind and stop stressing over your free apps and TV forecasts. Inquire at bamwx.com/contact-us or [email protected].
