Good afternoon! Quick update on the snow threats coming over the next week, starting with the one tonight. No major changes from this morning’s blog. Here’s the expected snowfall tonight into tomorrow morning. *Some isolated 4-5″ amounts are possible in steadiest bands, but widespread 1-3″ should do it*.
The next system arrives Sunday with a mix of precipitation. This will be a complex storm with possibly multiple precipitation type changes. Starting off, temperatures will be just cold enough for snow at the onset across southern New England, but with a southerly wind, snow will change to rain from south to north Sunday morning, limiting accumulations in coastal southern New England and probably keeping it from accumulating at all on Long Island and in NYC points westward. Here’s the European through the day Sunday (8am, 2pm, 8pm from top to bottom) showing that changeover.
By the evening, the storm will rapidly strengthen offshore bringing additional cold air into the system, changing rain back over to snow as it slowly pulls away. Here’s the European once again showing that change over with images at 2 AM Monday and 8AM Monday.
How fast this changeover occurs will dictate how much snow falls in southeastern New England where initially it will be much too warm for snow. The risk to this forecast is quite high right now as the GFS model does not even give any snow to this region on the back side.
With that said, I took a middle ground approach for now. Here’s my first call snow map from Sunday morning to Monday afternoon.
The other big threat with this system will be winds. Gusts past 50mph are possible Sunday night into Monday. Here’s the wind forecast.
Another storm threat exists Thursday, but confidence is low. Here’s the European.
Confidence and Risk
- High confidence on snow tonight.
- High confidence on a storm Sunday-Monday, but confidence is low to moderate on when the precipitation changeovers will occur. I will update this tomorrow morning.
- Low confidence on the storm threat Thursday. Lots of moving parts that will need to be resolved over the coming days.
I will update this forecast tomorrow morning. ~Ed