Key Points – Wednesday, May 10, 2017:
Synopsis: Good Wednesday morning! Today we discuss the increase in coverage of showers and storms over the next couple of days, including chances for some strong storms and additional heavy rainfall across some locations. A dry stretch ensues this weekend into around Wednesday next week along with a nice warm-up in the cards as well…however, the pattern looks to turn back to active mid to late next week through the latter half of the month which we’ve been discussing. Have a blessed day!
Heavy rainfall along the warm front later today into Thursday morning…can’t rule out a strong storm either as these storms move east.
Moving into Thursday night into Friday…the model makes it look worse than it will be, but some strong storms will be possible especially south as well as some additional heavier rains. Not everyone gets in on these, folks further to north will likely stay drier.
Strong storms later tonight into early Friday…pending on levels of instability, we could see the slight risk expanded further north and east on Thursday into Friday.
Total rainfall…not everyone gets in on the heavier rains, but the threat of 1-3″ of rainfall does exist in the heavier, strong storms.
Certainly a warm-up in the cards getting into next week, wouldn’t be shocked to see some folks get into the 80s in this stretch as well.
We see a nice dry stretch into the weekend into ~Wednesday next week before our next scattered storm threat works its way into the forecast area. Beyond that we return back to an active pattern as seen well in the 11-15 day precipitation from normal.
Confidence and Risk:
- Average to above average confidence some scattered showers and storms move east into Zones 1/2 later tonight into Thursday morning.
- Average risk for some heavy rainfall and an isolated strong storm risk here.
- Above average confidence additional storms fire later Thursday into Friday morning.
- Average risk here as well for stronger storms and some heavier rains especially south.
- Average confidence we see a nice dry stretch into mid-next week before the active pattern ensues.
- Above average confidence we warm up into next week as well.
Today’s video (8 min):