Key Points – Tuesday, May 16, 2017:
Synopsis: Good Tuesday morning! Another nice day on tap for the eastern Midwest today, however, getting into mid to late week we start to see our chances for showers and storms increase from west to east. We also continue to target our big weekend storm system that looks to bring more widespread showers to the Midwest. It will continue to be warm across the Midwest for the next week, but as we show in the video, we cool down pretty significantly getting into the week 2 timeframe. Have a wonderful day!
High pressure overhead today bringing plentiful sunshine and highs in the lower 80s. It’s not until the day on Wednesday where we start to see more energy move into the eastern Midwest that could spark a shower/storm.
Moving forward to Thursday into Friday is when a frontal boundary kind of hangs around across the Midwest, bring a ~30% maybe a 40% for showers and storms.
The next more widespread rain maker comes in later Saturday into Sunday and exiting east on Monday…need to watch this system for moderate rainfall and gusty wind potential, as this is the bigger storm system we’ve been targeting for the Midwest for quite some time.
Total rain next 7 days, we still have the case here where some folks may see 1.0″ of rain while others not far away may see little to none. All depends on the placement on the storms. With that being said, the system moving east this weekend will likely bring more widespread ~0.5″+ rains so keep an eye on this if planning activities or planting.
As mentioned in the video, we start very warm over the next week, but getting into the week 2 timeframe those cooler anomalies begin to settle bag in (resulting in 60s to lower 70s likely).
Confidence and Risk:
- Average confidence of isolated showers and/or a storm on Wednesday.
- Average confidence of more of a scattered storm threat on Thursday into Friday along a frontal boundary.
- Average risk for more widespread rainfall into the weekend from west to east as a low pressure system moves across the Midwest.
- High confidence we are overall warmer than normal for the next week, but beyond that a cooler than normal signal looks to return.
Today’s video (7 min):