#ILwx #AGwx Active Week Ahead, But The Devil Is In The Details. E.
Key Points: May 8, 2017
Synopsis: Good Monday morning! I hope you all had a wonderful weekend as we move forward into the second week of May. As discussed last week, this week will be warmer, but still quite active across the region. As warmer air moves in, expected periodic showers and thunderstorms through the week this week. We warm things up into the 70s and 80s tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will bring cooler temperatures back into the 60s for the end of the week, but also will deal with rain chances. The front will stall near the Ohio River with renewed showers and storms for the middle and end of the week especially in the southern half of the state. The heaviest rains will be dictated by where the front stalls, so make sure to check back through the week!
- Radar shows showers and storms across Iowa this morning. These will move eastward and weaken through the afternoon.
- Projected radar shows showers and storms impacting northern parts of the state into the overnight. Additional showers and storms will occur tomorrow as well discussed in the video below.
- The front will sag south through the week, taking rain chances gradually south with it. Someone likely sees some impressive rainfall depending on where the front stalls.
- Total rainfall for the week will again be dependent on where the front ends up, but here’s an idea. The take home message is that under heavier showers you can see 2-4″ of rain, otherwise a widespread 0.50-1.50″ is expected through the week across the region.
- Temperatures through the week as a whole end up below normal for most, despite a few warmer days this week as well.
Confidence and Risks:
- Above average confidence in an unsettled week with a frontal boundary nearby. As is usually the case with storms, not everyone will see a lot of rain, but if you get under a heavy storm, you will see some serious rainfall.
- Increasing confidence in heavier rains north to start the week, trending south through the week. Some uncertainty remains on how far south the front stalls, so be sure to check back!
- Above average confidence in cooler than normal temperatures for this week.
- Average confidence of this active regime continuing into week 2 and even beyond.
Today’s Video (7 minutes):