#ILwx Active Times Continuing This Week, Localized Flooding Possible. Details Here!
Key Points: May 23, 2017
Synopsis: Good Tuesday morning! We are tracking showers across western Illinois as a disturbance moves through the region. This system will intensify and bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through the day today into tonight. This upper level disturbance will hang around into Wednesday as well with additional rains expected. With cool air aloft, any showers and storms will contain small hail and very heavy rain. Another system will approach for the weekend as an active Pacific jet continues to promote cool, active times into the beginning of June. Have a blessed day!
- Current radar shows showers across west-central Illinois moving eastward.
- The pattern over the next week or so is going to be dominated by a large upper trough across the region. With moisture available from both the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, active times look to continue this week.
- Intermittent rains will continue today through Wednesday as the upper low hangs around.
- Thanks to cool air aloft, hail will be a threat with these showers and storms through the middle of the week.
- An active pattern looks to continue into the weekend with additional rain chances. Track with this system is a bit uncertain, but the pattern looks favorable for rainfall.
- Total rainfall through the weekend will be storm dependent, but certainly an active look across the state. The hit and miss nature of this system is shown well through our individual ensemble members shown below.
- Temperatures through the next 2 weeks will be cooler than normal thanks to that big upper trough hanging around. Our latest temperature forecast is below.
Confidence and Risks:
- Above average confidence in multiple shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek, but not everyone will see flooding rains – it will be very storm dependent.
- Above average confidence in cooler than normal conditions this week.
- Average confidence in a dry day Thursday before more rain possibilities into the weekend.
- Increasing confidence in cooler and active times continuing into week 2.
Today’s Video (7 minutes):