Good morning. We are tracking snow overspreading the area this morning with temperatures near freezing where its snowing and still above freezing where it is not. Here’s the latest radar as of 5 AM.
A good thing about the snow coming in a bit later, particularly near the coast, will be that it will make it harder to accumulate on pavement later this morning. I do think we still see accumulation, but it may be a bit less on pavement than initially thought. Snow comes in over the next hour or two where its not already snowing and rain changes to some snow in SE PA and NJ where surface temperature issues exist. Latest projected radar.
As we have discussed for the past 3 days, marginal temperatures will be the theme today with most hovering right near 32 before even rising this afternoon. *This is good news for road conditions!* However, temperatures will fall rapidly this evening allowing for a potential refreeze.
Latest Snow Map: note the 4-8″ area will have a lot of 4-5″ amounts I think with isolated 6-8″ amounts. Also note these amounts are total, not for pavement. Pavement amounts are likely 25-50% of these numbers.
We then focus our attention to Tuesday which has the makings of a very big storm. The latest European Ensembles are as bullish as I have ever seen at 4 day lead time, with nearly all of its members on board with a major system. Note there are some members close to the coast, so there is definitely a threat for some rain/mix in coastal New England.
Snowfall probabilities are also incredible for 4 days out, showing nearly an 80% chance of 6″ or more and 50% chance of 12″ or more in some spots. That is as strong of a signal you’ll get on day 4.
Confidence and Risks:
- High confidence in today’s snow, but moderate confidence in accumulations on pavement due to later snowfall arrival time.
- High confidence in a refreeze this evening as temps fall.
- High confidence in a strong storm forming Tuesday, confidence is LOW regarding exact track and precipitation type.
The video has a lot of info today so give it a watch! ~Ed