Good Monday Afternoon!
Below is a what we are seeing on radar right now- we are looking at pretty dry conditions across the state with only some extremely light showers in NE SD :
Moving into the evening and overnight hours, we think that much of the state will be dry. We are watching for a few scattered storms in NE SD try to form and work Northeast off to the ND/SD/MN border. Some of these could be on the stronger side, but this is not something widespread and will not affect the majority of the state. This is modeled simulated radar from 6 PM CT tonight until 7 AM CT tomorrow morning:
As we push to tomorrow, high temperatures look to stay in the low 70s for much of the state, the one exception being SE SD that could see highs closer to the upper 70s/low 80s:
Heading into our Tuesday, we think much of SD stays dry with only a few extremely isolated showers. Below is modeled upper level energy from 1 AM CT Tue morning until 7 PM CT Tuesday evening. We can see our ridge located in SE US that is pumping flow around it from SW to NE- the placement of the ridge and a trough out west is what is keeping most of South Dakota at risk for rainfall for the next several days. Note that at the end of the loop we can see some higher amounts of energy working into the state, this will be our next shot at precip that could be on the stronger side:
A look at what simulated radar could look like from 7 AM CT tomorrow until 7 PM CT tomorrow afternoon. As mentioned in the AM update, we think that SD could be looking at a pretty dry day tomorrow before turning our attention to the next round of precip. Note that at the end of this loop we see some showers and storms forming in SE SD that can form a storm cluster as it works its way east overnight Tue night into Wed:
We are watching our low level jet (faster winds a few thousand feet up) to be pretty fast and aid in the formation of these stronger storms as it looks like the nose of the jet could be situated in the Nebraska/ South Dakota region- SE SD in particular has the best shot at being the location that storm formation happens:
A look at precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Tue evening. The precip in the black circle looks to come from a few storms that should develop this evening and work off to the NE. Some of these can be stronger cells, but we are not expecting any widespread, severe weather. The current thought is that this model may be a little too aggressive on these totals and totals should not be as widespread. The area circled in red will come from our storms tomorrow evening. We will have to fine tune timing of development in tomorrow morning’s update, but right now it looks like SE SD will be where the majority of storms initiate and then move eastward:
Please reach out to our email at [email protected] with any questions you have! Enjoy the rest of your Monday afternoon!