Good Monday Afternoon!
Below is a what we are seeing on radar right now- we are looking at a widespread rain shield in N and Central MN that is working its way to the North and East. More scattered activity is found down to the southern part of MN:
Moving into the evening and overnight hours, we think that much of the stronger activity will be focused in the SE part of MN but this does not mean that this will be the only place to see stronger storms! Here is a look at our current favored simulated radar from 5 PM CT until 1 AM CT tonight. We do think that most of the stronger storms can start to die down around the 10 or 11 PM CT timeframe:
Here is a look at the areas we are favoring for the best chances for stronger storms. The area in red has the best chance at seeing some stronger storms with all modes of severe weather on the table (hail, damaging winds, isolated tornado, lightning, potential flash flooding). The area in yellow is less likely to see these conditions, however this is not to say severe weather cannot happen outside the red area. One thing we do want to make clear- just because you are in the red or yellow outlined areas does not mean you 100% WILL see severe weather and if you are not included that you won’t see any storms. These are just the areas that have the best potential of seeing stronger storms based on atmospheric conditions. NE IA looks to have the best shot at seeing the most severe parts of these storms, but we do think these eventually work into Southern MN:
As we push to tomorrow, we could be looking at a decent temperature gradient across the state. The International border looks to be right around 60 with a few places not making it out of the 50’s. As we work south, we gradually warm things up until we are closer to the upper 70s/low 80s by the MN/IA border :
Heading into our Tuesday, we think our area of precip will continue to work its way off to the north and east. Below is modeled upper level energy from 1 AM CT Mon morning until 7 PM CT Monday evening. We can see our ridge located in SE US that is pumping flow around it from SW to NE- the placement of the ridge and a trough out west is what is keeping most of Minnesota at risk for rainfall for the next several days:
A look at what simulated radar could look like from 7 AM CT tomorrow until 7 PM CT tomorrow afternoon. Working later into the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow, we think we can get some dry time across the state after an overall wet Monday. There could be a few lingering lighter showers, mainly in NE MN, but we think that Tue late AM/PM is mostly dry for MN as a whole:
A look at precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Tue evening. Totals are a little overdone for much of Cental and Northern MN because this model run is a few hours old so some of this “new” rainfall has already fallen. We do think that the area in black will receive more than the totals shown below. We do favor the Northern third of MN to see this widespread, heavier totals based on what we are seeing on radar, and southern MN is looking at more scattered totals. Some of the storms in S MN could produce a high amount of rain (1.0+ inches) rather quickly so flash flooding could be an issue if you are caught under a heavier cell:
Please reach out to our email at [email protected] with any questions you have! Enjoy the rest of your Monday afternoon!