Good morning everyone! We are currently tracking a few isolated areas of convection across the Northern Plains as of 10am CDT: A thin line of cells along the northern MN/ND border, area of showers working into western ND, and light showers that may not even be reaching the ground in southern SD.
The main story for today will be wave of showers that is working into western ND currently. The energy associated with this convection will continue eastward through the remainder of the morning and afternoon hours, providing shower and storm chances to western/central ND. Additional development is expected across the central Dakotas ~5pm CDT and later. The best chances for this broken line of storms discussed below is expected over central/eastern ND into north-central/northeastern SD. Development will be more isolated across southern SD given weaker energy. These storms will progress eastward overnight.
The potential exists for some of these storms along the broken line to become severe with damaging winds and large hail given decent lapse rates, instability, and wind shear. The SPC highlights this area in the darker green shading across portions of ND, SD and northwestern MN. There’s a chance this may be upgraded to a slight risk later today. While not a main threat, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday: Isolated showers and storms along the MN/ND border are possible through the afternoon hours with lighter shower risks remaining across north-central MN early evening. The disturbance to the west will progress eastward today with scattered showers and storms first across the western Dakotas (especially ND) and then into the central Dakotas where ~5pm CDT a broken line of strong storms is expected to develop. Coverage will be greatest across central/eastern ND given the dynamics and energy available, but this line could extend further south into the middle of SD. More isolated development is expected across southern SD. Northwestern MN will work in these strong storms after 9pm CDT this evening before progressing further east across the remainder of northern MN, though the severe risk will fade overnight. These storms will also be entering a far less favorable environment across MN so storm coverage will likely decline somewhat but continue into the morning hours Monday.
Here’s a look at the upper-level energy remaining Monday morning: Best chance for storms will exist across north-central/northeastern MN during the morning hours with less risks further south, though still present.
The incoming wave of energy will exit MN around lunchtime Monday with another pulse lifting into western Dakota later Monday into the overnight hours.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Showers and storms over MN will exit the region shortly after 12pm CDT Monday. Most areas will remain dry until about 7pm CDT when new shower/storm development is expected across western ND with that other pulse of energy. Those storms will remain rather scattered as they push eastward overnight across ND. We can’t rule out some very isolated showers and storms firing elsewhere across southern SD and central MN overnight Monday into Tuesday morning but coverage will be quite low (10-20%).
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday: The best chance for showers and storms will be situated across ND into northern MN. Patches of 0.5-1.5″+ are likely where the broken line of storms tracks across these areas. Rains will remain rather isolated across SD into southern MN, though we can’t rule out a isolated showers and storms given the disturbances working through the region.
European Model 7 day rainfall: The best shot for rains will still remain situated across ND and especially northern MN through through this timeframe. Some decent rains can make it as far south as northeastern SD into southern MN.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Note, cannot rule out some frost risks in east-central/southeastern MN overnight tonight as temperatures dip into the 40s and possibly the mid-upper 30s in a few locations. There’s a slim chance for frost tonight across far northern ND.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days:
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will become gusty Tuesday and Wednesday.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls for the next 10 days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!