Good morning everyone! A majority of the region remains quiet this morning with the exception being northern ND where a cluster of showers and storms continues to work through. These showers and storms will lift ENE, likely impacting far northwestern MN before lifting out of the region/weakening.
Another wave of upper-level energy will work into the western Dakotas late this afternoon into the evening hours. Scattered showers and storms will be likely in these areas before they push off to the east during the overnight hours.
As mentioned in the previous graphic, a few of these storms may become strong with gusty winds and marginally severe hail. While not a large threat, we can’t rule it out given the dynamics and a warm front lifting into the area. Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook is shown below.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: The area of showers and storms across northern ND will work ENE into southern Canada and far northwestern MN during the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered showers and storms will lift into the western Dakotas after 5pm CDT and continue to lift eastward through the overnight hours. Given a substantial low-level jet in the region overnight, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this activity last longer across the central Dakotas before weakening as the storms approach a drier, more stable airmass. By 7am CDT, most areas of convection will have faded but a few lingering areas of showers and storms are still possible across ND, far northwestern MN, and possibly northwestern SD.
More upper-air support will follow behind this evening’s/tonight’s energy, leading to another round of scattered showers and storms across the Dakotas Sunday and Sunday night. These storms will likely progress further eastward as additional moisture works into the area.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: This additional disturbance will spark scattered showers and storms first across the western Dakotas during the late morning hours Sunday before progressing eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas during the day into Sunday night. While not a big threat, we can’t rule out some gusty winds and small hail accompanying some of these storms. Northwestern MN will work in these storm chances Sunday evening with points further south across central/western MN and eastern SD likely affected through the night into Monday morning.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: The best chances for rains, though scattered, will be situated across ND into northern MN where a few rounds of scattered showers and storms will be likely. Isolated patches of 0.5-1.5″ can’t be ruled out where it storms in these areas. Rains will remain rather isolated across SD into southern MN, though we can’t rule out some showers and storms given the energy in place.
We likely start to become more active during the middle portions of next week across ND into northern MN due to increased southwest flow. Here’s a look at 7 day rainfall totals from the European Model:
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Note, cannot rule out a couple of frost risks in eastern/southeastern MN overnight tonight and Sunday night as temperatures dip into the 40s and possibly the 30s in a few locations.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days:
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls for the next 10 days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!