Good morning everyone! We continue to have a cloud deck in place across the northern portions of the area as of 9:30am CDT. Areas of fog can also be noted across southern ND, northern SD and northeastern MN. These areas of fog should burn off within the next few hours with the cloud deck likely persisting.
More upper-level energy will lift into the western and northern portions of the region throughout the day. This includes the Dakotas and northern MN where areas of light showers will be possible. The greatest forcing for showers still remains across the far northern sections of ND and MN, continuing from the rain showers observed yesterday. Warmer air will be lifting north across SD and southern MN, but with a cooler airmass in place across the north a few snowflakes may mix in. There is plenty of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, so rain that falls from the clouds may not reach the ground due to evaporation (known as a virga).
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday: Areas of light showers will continue to clip the far northern portions of the region today with points further south across the Dakotas working in areas of light shower activity, especially as we head into tonight. Light shower activity will increase in coverage during the nighttime hours into Monday across SD, eastern ND and into northwestern MN. Enough instability may build up in the eastern Dakotas into western MN late tonight into Monday morning, resulting in widely scattered storm chances within the light shower activity. A few of these storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.
A few areas of dense patchy fog are once again possible Monday morning, mainly across ND, western SD and northern MN. Any fog that develops in the region will burn off by late morning.
The severe weather threat is looking to increase along the cold front across southern MO Monday afternoon and evening. A narrow squall line may develop in this area due to a surge in moisture and modest instability. The main threat with this disturbance will be damaging winds if this line can develop, but spotty hail and/or an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
By the early afternoon hours Monday, upper-level energy associated with our eastward-progressing cold front will be draped from northern MN southwestern into SD. This will result in shower and storm risks in these areas through the remainder of Monday into Monday night as it pushes east. More scattered showers and storms will impact the western Dakotas late Monday afternoon and evening before more of the Dakotas receive this risk into the nighttime hours. An upper-level trough will be digging in behind our main feature tomorrow, so the convection pushing into the western Dakotas may drift southeastward with more impacts being felt across SD.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Convection associated with the cold front across northwestern MN and eastern ND into SD will progress eastward through the day Monday. While not depicted by this model run, a potential squall line may develop in southern/east-central MN late Monday afternoon and evening. This convection will lift out of MN Monday night with a new disturbance pushing into the Dakotas late Monday afternoon. These showers and storms will drop southeastward with the upper-level low digging into the region, with widely scattered showers remaining across SD and western ND by 7am CDT Tuesday.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday: Areas across northern MN can see 0.1-0.5″ of rain with locally higher amounts possible as the cold front progresses through with generally lighter rains expected elsewhere. Many areas will see only up to 0.1″ of rain at best.
Here’s a look at the 7-day rainfall from the European Model: A majority of the rains through this period will clip the far northern portions of the area and northern MN with lighter rain amounts expected further south.
Temperatures will remain quite low across the northern areas today, gradually increasing into Monday. 40s for highs are likely in northern ND and far northern MN today. High temperatures in the 70s and even a few 80s are more likely southward across portions of SD into southern MN. With overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s across ND and northern MN tonight, frost risks are once again on the table. A few locations may dip to the freezing mark.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Higher humidity levels will lift northward across eastern SD and southern MN today and eastern MN tomorrow. The cold front in the region will bring down Canadian air with much drier air expected mid-week.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
With some stronger gusts and lower relative humidities, Red Flag Warnings remain in place today across southwestern SD due to the fire danger. Elsewhere, there are Dense Fog Advisories across portions southern ND and northern SD. The fog in these areas should erode over the next few hours.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis over the next 15 days: Please note that this is an ensemble which averages/smoothes the numbers.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!