Good morning everyone! The only activity going on in the region as of 8am CDT is across the Bootheel of MO where scattered showers are working through. This will be the general area (across southeastern MO) to expect showers and perhaps a few storms throughout the course of the day. Elsewhere, plentiful sunshine will continue.
Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect throughout the day: Sunshine with patchy clouds will be observed for most across KS, eastern NE, IA and northern MO. On the outskirts of these areas (northwestern NE and southeastern MO) there will be shower and storm risks to contend with. The risk across northwestern NE likely won’t arrive until the evening hours and will remain rather isolated in nature.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday: Areas of showers and perhaps a few storms are likely across southeastern MO before additional storm activity begins to work northward during the nighttime hours into Monday morning across southern MO. In northwestern NE, isolated areas of showers and possibly a storm won’t be likely until after 6pm CDT with more showers working into the area by 7am CDT Monday. As previously stated, in-between these areas will be dry, providing great weather for outdoor work or activities.
The severe weather threat increases tomorrow as a cold front from the Northern Plains works into the area. A narrow squall line may develop across western IA, eastern NE, into far north-central KS along this front where ample moisture and modest instability lies. The main threat with this disturbance will be damaging winds, but spotty hail and/or an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
Here’s the energy that will be the culprit for the areas of scattered showers and strong storms in the region Monday: Upper-level energy will work eastward through the day Monday, providing enough lift for areas of convection to develop within the circled region across the northwestern portions of the region. A majority of this energy will remain across NE and IA, so the best coverage is likely in these areas. The potential squall line won’t develop until the late afternoon and evening hours across eastern NE into western IA. It’s important to note that models aren’t too keen on shower and storm coverage for most of the day Monday, but with sufficient energy in the atmosphere this solution can’t be ruled out. Widely scattered showers and storms are likely to lift northward across the eastern two-thirds of MO Monday into Tuesday morning.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Models differ on the evolution of storms heading into Monday but given the forcing from a cold front in the area, showers and storms will be likely across portions of NE, IA and MO. Shower coverage will likely start off minimal Monday morning across NE, lifting eastward into western IA after 4pm CDT. At this point, a narrow squall line may develop given the dynamics but the NAM3km model (shown below) is quite hesitant on this idea. Additional showers and storms with likely greater coverage will progress through NE during the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday with areas of convection likely across the state around 7am CDT Tuesday. IA will also work in this additional activity early Tuesday morning. Isolated showers and storms will lift northward through the eastern two-thirds of MO through the day Monday with more storms popping Monday night into Tuesday morning. While not mentioned, Kansas can receive some light showers and perhaps a couple storms Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday: Areas of showers and storms are most likely across NE, IA into the eastern two-thirds of MO through this timespan. Where it storms, a general 0.5-1″ of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. The best chance for rains remains across southeastern MO (especially the Bootheel) where 1-3″ of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible.
Here’s a look at 7-day rainfall from the European Model: Heavier rains are expected over the next couple of days across southeastern MO with more scattered rain chances more likely elsewhere. Some numerical weather models indicate very little rainfall over KS during this timeframe. It’s important to note that this model is broad brushed and that not everyone will see rain.
High temperatures over the next four days: Elevated high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected across the Western Plains today with 70s more likely further east.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows will be common in the 40s across IA tonight with lows in the 60s likely across southeastern KS into southern MO.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days: More humid air will lift northward today into Monday east of the High Plains.
Wind guidance over the next four days: With some gusty winds in the High Plains and lower relative humidities, there is an elevated threat for fire danger across the NE panhandle today. Red Flag Warnings have been hoisted across far northwestern NE as a result of the fire danger.
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Please note that this is an ensemble which averages/smoothes these numbers.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!