Good morning everyone! A line of showers and storms has lifted its way out of the eastern Dakotas into MN as of 9am CDT. This line is dropping some decent rains across MN. While not severe at this point in time, I can’t rule out some gusty winds and small hail with the leading storms. Showers and storms are also working their way into southeastern MN.
Southern MN and far southeastern SD will be the focus for heavy rains through Tuesday night, mainly from tonight onwards. Multiple rounds of showers and storms through this period will increase the flood threat as storms dump rains over the same areas. The WPC specifically highlights southeastern MN Tuesday and Tuesday night for very heavy rains as more upper-level energy works into the area.
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT today: The HRRR model has the best handle on the line of showers and storms working through MN currently. This complex will lift ENE through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon hours. The model weakens it quite abruptly over eastern MN and given this recent bias, I can’t rule out more showers and storms over eastern MN later this morning and early afternoon than what is depicted. Additional showers and storms will work into southern/southeastern MN. A few stray pop ups are possible across the central and eastern areas of SD as well.
After this morning’s disturbance works out of MN, there won’t be much in the way of remaining energy in the region later this afternoon and evening as most of it remains in the Central Plains. However, the southern portions of MN and southeastern SD will likely be clipped by this energy, providing shower and storm chances through the remainder of the day into the evening/overnight hours. Here’s some additional information:
Simulated radar from 1pm CDT this afternoon through 7am CDT Monday: Areas of scattered showers and storms will impact southern MN and southeastern SD through the afternoon and evening hours. This convection will exit around 10pm CDT tonight before additional upper-level energy from the plains pushes northward into SD and southern MN after this time. As a result of this, showers and storms will begin to lift into SD very late this evening into the overnight hours. Portions of far southern MN will also work in this activity. By the end of this loop (7am CDT Monday), scattered showers and storms will be present in SD, far southern MN, and possibly as far north as southern ND. A few storms may contain gusty winds and small hail.
Looking ahead to late Monday afternoon/evening, there is a chance for strong to severe storms across the western Dakotas given a modestly unstable environment, decent wind shear values and a strong approaching cold front. The SPC highlights this area in their latest Severe Weather Outlook for Monday but as time progresses and the event nears, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this upgraded to a slight risk across these areas. The strong storm threat may persist into the nighttime hours Monday into Tuesday. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though an isolated tornado or two are possible.
Upper-level energy lifting into the southern portions of the region late tonight into tomorrow will be located across central/eastern SD into southern MN by late Monday afternoon/evening. These areas will likely be impacted by areas of heavy showers and storms. Through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, expect this area of showers and storms to propagate towards the northeast. While only a slight threat, some of these storms may contain gusty winds and hail. The severe weather threat discussed above will be located in the western Dakotas where the NAM3km is picking up on the energy lifting into the area. This will also follow in a similar direction towards the northeast, affecting central and eastern ND/northern SD overnight.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 10am CDT Tuesday: Areas of showers and storms will lift northeastward through the morning hours Monday across central and eastern SD and southern MN. A few storms may affect southern and eastern ND/northwestern MN during this timespan. Coverage in heavy showers and storms will increase during the late afternoon and evening hours across eastern SD into central/southern MN, persisting through the night across these areas. Elsewhere, a broken complex of storms will ignite along a strong cold front in the western Dakotas after 6pm CDT Monday and push eastward through ND and northern SD through the remainder of the evening and nighttime hours. By 7am CDT Tuesday, the remnants of these storms will be impacting northwestern MN. Most convection will be exiting the region by the end of this loop (10am CDT Tuesday). However, some scattered showers and storms may be persisting across eastern SD and southern MN as well as far northern MN. Another wave of showers and storms will progress into eastern SD and southern MN during the day Tuesday.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Tuesday: Heavier doses of rain are once again expected across southeastern SD into central/southern MN. A general 0.5-1.5″ of rain can be expected in these areas. Some isolated pockets of 2-4″+ are possible pending where the heaviest bands of rain set up. The broken complex of storms expected across portions of the Dakotas Monday evening/night will drop areas of 0.25-0.75″ of rain with localized 1-2″ not off the table.
Multiple rain chances will continue across southeastern SD into the southern half of MN through mid next week, resulting in a decent shot for heavy rain totals. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5-3″ of rain is likely in these areas over the next 7 days with totals dropping off further north and west. Localized 3-5″ can’t be ruled out across the southern third of MN given the high moisture content in the atmosphere through this time.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s for much of the period, though some warmer temps are expected across the far western Dakotas Monday. Overnight lows in the 60s will be common across the southern portions of the area with 50s and a few 40s more likely across the northern areas.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: There will continue to be a stark contrast between the northwestern and southeastern areas through a majority of this period. Drier air will be located across the northwestern areas while more humid air will be located across the southeastern areas.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your holiday weekend!