Good morning everyone! We are currently tracking an area of scattered heavy showers and storms across portions of western/central KS as of 7:20am CDT. Expect this convection to continue on a NE trajectory through the morning hours. A few isolated showers and storms have also popped in northeastern KS into northwestern MO.
More strong to severe thunderstorms are on the table today given the moist, unstable environment. Due to plentiful morning clouds and convection, this likely won’t be a widespread severe weather threat but with the dynamics at play through the day, I can’t rule out damaging winds and large hail accompanying some storms, especially in central/northern KS and northwestern MO. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The SPC does not highlight any areas for severe weather tomorrow but after glancing at some model data, there is a chance for isolated severe wind gusts and hail in the circled region for Monday. Plenty of instability around but lapse rates and wind shear appear minimal at this time. It is important to note that strong to severe storms are possible at any given time through the remainder of the weekend, even at night.
Flash flooding will be the main threat with the storms across portions of KS and northern MO through Tuesday as multiple rounds of heavy storms continue to inundate these same areas. Central and northern KS are the best target today for very heavy rains but as mentioned any location can see flooding, though quite unlikely in central and southern MO.
Models do not have a great handle on the areas of convection in KS and northwestern MO this morning, but the HRRR looks to be performing the best, at least in the very short-term. Convection across western/central KS will lift northeastward through the morning hours, possibly losing some steam while also pushing into southern NE. However, pockets of showers and storms will likely persist through the morning hours, especially across central/eastern KS and northern MO. A few pop-ups can’t be ruled out across southern MO based on the HRRR. Simulated radar through 1pm CDT today:
Here’s a look into what’s expected to occur late this afternoon into the late evening hours: More energy will pulse into the region, providing once again an additional opportunity for heavy rains across the northwest half of KS into portions of northern MO this evening into tonight. Some of these storms may drift more southward after development, leaving eastern KS and points slightly further south into central MO possibly at risk for these storms.
Simulated radar from 1pm CDT today through 7am CDT Monday: With a frontal boundary remaining in place across KS into northern MO, scattered strong, heavy storms will once again regain intensity, especially after 4pm CDT this afternoon. A couple clusters appear imminent at this time from western KS eastward into northern MO from late afternoon (4pm CDT) through the early nighttime hours. These storms will likely sink southeastward some (as previously stated) through the evening and early nighttime hours before activity begins to shift back northward overnight. A few pulse-type storms may develop due to instability across central and southern MO this afternoon and evening before dying out overnight. Northern KS into northwestern MO may see repeated rounds of heavy rains from the previously mentioned storms during the evening/overnight timeframe. The NAM3km and HRRR are quite aggressive with this approach and given the energy present in the atmosphere at this time, it is hard to disagree. By 7am CDT Monday (end of loop) areas of showers and storms will likely be persisting across portions of KS into northern MO.
Jumping ahead, here’s a brief glance into what to expect late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Morning convection will likely lift northward into NE and IA. Scattered energy will remain across the area, sparking additional showers and storms, mainly across KS and far northern MO during the afternoon and evening hours. An additional wave of storms from the south will progress into KS overnight Monday into Tuesday.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Morning convection across KS and northern MO will progress northward, being replaced by an additional round of scattered heavy storms, mainly after 5pm CDT across a majority of KS into far northern MO. Portions of eastern-central KS may see a lull in activity during the afternoon and evening hours given little energy present in the area. Areas of showers and storms will continue to lift northward through the remainder of the evening, especially across western/central KS. Redevelopment is possible across western KS overnight Monday into Tuesday, continuing storm chances in this area. As previously discussed, an additional wave will begin to lift into central and eastern KS, mainly after 12am CDT Tuesday. This wave will continue northward through the remainder of the night into Tuesday morning providing heavy rains to the area. Far western MO may get clipped by this disturbance overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Tuesday: Widespread 2-3″ of rain is expected across central/northeastern KS into northwestern MO. There will be several pockets of 3-6″+ of rain given the high moisture content in the atmosphere and plentiful amount of disturbances riding through the region. There may be a few patches that fail to see 2″ but those will likely be few and far between. Far western KS may stay slightly drier but storm chances will be very plentiful. Central and southern MO will largely miss out on these rains given a stout high pressure system located just east of the region. I can’t rule out some pulse-type storms during the afternoon/evening hours each day given the high moisture content in the atmosphere.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: An active pattern continues through the course of the upcoming week with multiple rounds of heavy showers and storms, especially across a majority of KS into northern MO. A general 2-5″ of rain is expected in these areas with localized 5-7″+ of rain not out of the question. Central and southern MO will see far less rain during this period.
High temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures will likely range from the upper 80s to low 90s as the area remains just south of the frontal boundary draped in the region.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Due to the surplus in moisture across the region, overnight lows will struggle to fall into the 60s in many locations.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain quite high for this time of year through Wednesday.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
Temperature charts over the next 10 days for Jefferson City, St. Joseph, Salina and Garden City:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!