Good morning everyone! We are currently tracking an area of scattered heavy showers and storms across portions of eastern NE into western/central IA as of 6:40am CDT. Expect this convection to continue on an ENE trajectory through the morning hours. An area of showers and storms from western KS is also beginning to lift into southern NE.
More strong to severe thunderstorms are on the table today given the moist, unstable environment. Due to plentiful morning clouds and convection, this likely won’t be a widespread severe weather threat but with the dynamics at play through the day, I can’t rule out damaging winds and large hail accompanying some storms, especially in southern/eastern NE into IA. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The SPC does not highlight any areas for severe weather tomorrow but after glancing at some model data, there is a chance for isolated severe wind gusts and hail in the circled region for Monday. Plenty of instability around but lapse rates and wind shear appear minimal at this time.
Flash flooding will be the main threat with the storms across IA and eastern NE through Tuesday as multiple rounds of heavy storms continue to inundate these the same areas. Southern and eastern IA is the best target today for very heavy rains but as mentioned any location can see flooding.
Models do not have a great handle on the areas of convection in IA and NE this morning, but the HRRR looks to be performing the best, at least in the very short-term. Convection across eastern NE and western/central IA will lift northeastward through the morning hours, likely fading in intensity. As previously discussed, showers and storms will continue to lift into southern NE through the morning hours. While rain intensity will likely diminish some through the morning, isolated pockets of showers and storms will likely persist, especially across eastern NE into portions of IA. Simulated radar through 1pm CDT today:
Here’s a look into what’s expected to occur late this afternoon into the late evening hours: More energy will pulse into the region, providing once again an additional opportunity for heavy rains across southern/eastern NE into IA.
Simulated radar from 1pm CDT today through 7am CDT Monday: With a frontal boundary remaining in place across the souther portions of NE into IA, scattered strong, heavy storms will regain intensity, especially after 4pm CDT. A couple clusters appears imminent at this time from southern/eastern NE into IA through the evening hours. These storms will likely sink southeastward some through the evening and early nighttime hours before more activity springs northward overnight across these same areas. Portions of north-central NE may receive some of these heavy storms as well.
Jumping ahead, here’s a brief glance into what to expect late tomorrow afternoon and evening. As stated before, morning convection will lift back north through NE and IA. Scattered energy will remain across the area, sparking additional showers and storms across NE and IA during the afternoon and evening hours.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Morning convection across the area progresses to the north, being replaced by an additional round of scattered heavy storms, especially after the lunch hour. There could be multiple waves of these scattered storms as one wave works through during the afternoon with another pushing through the same areas during the evening and nighttime hours. This can be said for the eastern 2/3rds of NE into IA. Western NE is looking to stay drier but given isolated energy in the area, I can’t rule out some isolated storms during the evening and nighttime hours. Upper-level energy continues to lift northward Monday night with the intensity of the storms likely weakening some by early morning Tuesday. Another round of widespread showers and storms will likely push into the central and eastern portions of NE early Tuesday morning with coverage becoming more widespread as the morning progresses. This activity will likely lift into western IA during the mid-morning hours Tuesday.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Tuesday: Widespread 2-3″ of rain is expected from central NE eastward through IA. There will be several pockets of 3-6″+ of rain given the high moisture content in the atmosphere and plentiful amount of disturbances riding through the region. There may be a few patches that fail to see 2″ but those will likely be few and far between. Western NE will stay drier through this time as most disturbances stay just east of this area, but an isolated 0.25-0.75 can’t be ruled out.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: An active pattern continues through the course of the upcoming week with multiple rounds of heavy showers and storms, especially across the eastern half of NE into IA. A general 3-5″ of rain is expected in these areas with localized 5-8″+ of rain not out of the question. Northwestern NE will see far less rain during this period.
High temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures will likely range in the 80s given consistent disturbances pushing through the region.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Due to the surplus in moisture across the region, overnight lows will struggle to fall into the 60s in many locations. Best chance for 60s across northwestern NE.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain quite high for this time of year through Wednesday.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
Temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Iowa City, Lincoln and North Platte:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!