Good evening everyone! Most of SD and NE remain dry as of 5:15pm CDT as the complex of storms that affected SD earlier today has since exited the area. However, some isolated showers and storms have entered the NE panhandle. We’ll work in additional storm chances in the area this evening into tonight.
Multiple chances for showers and storms are expected in the region over the coming days, with the eastern/southeastern portions of SD the prime spot for heavy rains and possibly localized flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not highlight any areas for severe weather, but given the dynamics at play, some storms may become strong with gusty winds and hail the main threats.
Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect with the additional storms expected to fire into tonight: Any dry weather present across the area currently is likely short-lived with scattered showers and storms working into the area this evening and tonight. The threat exists for all of SD and NE, though the southern portions of NE are the most likely to go unscathed by storm activity. As stated in the graphic, a complex of storms is expected to develop over far eastern SD tonight with these storms exiting shortly after development.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Tuesday: With the wave of scattered energy working into the area, more showers and storms are expected overnight into tomorrow morning, especially across southern SD and northern NE. The complex of storms previously discussed will develop over far eastern SD late this evening, exiting into MN and IA tonight. As noted, the far western portion of this complex of storms in far eastern SD may become strong with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Though not as likely, this threat can’t be ruled out with the storms further west across NE and SD.
The energy associated with tonight’s/tomorrow morning’s storms across the area will be progressing eastward, affecting eastern SD/NE during the afternoon hours Tuesday. By 7pm CDT Tuesday, most of these storms will have either faded or exited to the east across MN and IA.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Tuesday through 7pm CDT Tuesday: Areas of showers and strong storms will progress through southern SD and northern NE before lifting eastward during the evening hours Tuesday. This area has the best potential to see storms, but northern SD and even southern NE can see some isolated shower and storm development as well. New flare-ups in convection will likely commence by the end of this loop (7pm CDT Tuesday) across southeastern SD.
More energy will funnel into SD and northern NE Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. This will once again bring the opportunity for additional showers and storms in these areas. A few storms may contain gusty winds and small hail.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT Tuesday through 7am CDT Wednesday: Shower and storm coverage will increase across SD as the evening progresses into the nighttime hours, especially across southeastern SD where the greatest forcing is draped. This will likely be a very heavy complex of storms across southeastern SD and flash flooding will be on the table. The far northern portions of NE is likely to get clipped by these storms as they develop and track through the area.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 7am CDT Wednesday: Very heavy rains are possible from multiple rounds of storms over southeastern SD where localized flash flooding is possible. Further west across the rest of southern SD into northern NE, rainfall amounts are expected to be lighter but still fall between 0.25-1.5″. Rains will be more scattered in nature across western and northern SD with a large majority of southern NE remaining dry.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!