Good morning everyone! Most of the region remains free of rain as of 8:05am EDT with the exception being a few patches of mist/drizzle noted from surface observations across ND and northeastern MN. These areas will likely continue through the next few hours with a greater emphasis across northern ND where some lingering energy and low-level saturation will lead to areas of persistent cloud cover and drizzle through the day today. There is some weak energy lifting into southeastern SD/southwestern MN this afternoon but due to mid-level dryness, this likely won’t lead to any precipitation.
Simulated radar from 1pm CDT today through 7am CDT Monday: Areas of light showers/drizzle are expected to persist across northern ND through the day. Otherwise, most areas will stay dry through the mid-afternoon hours before isolated shower and storm activity develops along the eastward-progressing cold front mainly after 7pm CDT this evening across far eastern ND/far eastern SD into western/northern MN. This area of weaker convection will drift southeastward through the night across MN with some isolated patches of showers and storms possibly persisting across southern MN by 7am CDT Monday. Further west, another disturbance will lift into the Dakotas overnight, bringing widely scattered showers and storms to the area. Some spotty hail is possible with these storms.
The severe weather threat will increase across eastern SD into southern MN Monday afternoon into the nighttime hours as the frontal boundary will remain draped in an area of steep lapse rates, wind shear, and modest instability. Additional storms are expected to develop in this area during this timeframe, with storms in the area possibly merging into a complex of storms that drops southeastward overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Large hail will be the primary hazard but isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado can’t be ruled out.
Here’s a brief synopsis of the energy that will play a part in the storm development across the area overnight tonight into Monday: This energy will push eastward through the day Monday across the rest of the Dakotas, impacting MN during the afternoon and evening hours. As stated before, some of these storms may be strong, especially from late afternoon through the nighttime hours Monday into Tuesday across eastern SD into southern MN.
The cold front will continue to persist across the eastern and southern portions of the area Monday night. The circled region below is where the best chances for showers and storms will occur. Showers and strong storms are likely in southern MN with energy riding along the boundary in SD bringing more scattered showers and storms to the state.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms will progress through the Dakotas during the day Monday with western MN receiving some of these rains by 12pm CDT. These areas of storms will continue eastward and with the dynamics at play during the afternoon and evening, strong storms are likely to develop in eastern SD into southern MN, persisting into the overnight hours. Elsewhere, areas of light shower activity and perhaps some drizzle is possible through the day Monday across northwestern/northern ND (north of the main areas of showers and storms). By 7am CDT Tuesday, showers and storms will be dropping southeastward into northern IA/NE, though some lingering showers and storms are possible in the rest of SD and MN. It is important to note that the model shown below (NAM3km) is the most aggressive with its approach of the storm activity across SD and southern MN Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Given the setup’s potential, we can’t rule out this aggressive solution.
Here’s a look at total rainfall from the NAM3km model through 7am CDT Tuesday: The best opportunities for rain will be draped across eastern SD into southern MN where showers and strong storms will work through the area starting Monday. As discussed before, the NAM3km is the most aggressive, putting down 0.5-2″ of rain in some of these areas with localized 2-3″+. This is likely overdone but can’t rule out this depiction. Rains will be more scattered elsewhere with up to 0.5-1″ of rain possible where it storms.
Here’s a look at 7 day rainfall from the European Model: Heavier rains are likely through this upcoming week across eastern SD into the southern half of MN. A large portion of the rains shown in far northern MN have already fallen.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will surge ahead of an approaching cold front across the eastern Dakotas into MN today. Highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s will be prevalent in these areas. Heat indices are likely to max out in the mid 90s. Temperatures will begin to fall starting tonight as the cold front drops southeastward. While likely overdone on the overnight lows, we can’t rule out some areas of frost tonight and Monday night across ND and northern MN.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Dew points will be elevated for this time of year in the warm sector of the cold front (points east) today before the front pushes through and cuts down on the humidity Monday.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days: Strong winds will be noted today across the region. With low relative humidities in southwestern SD, we can’t rule out a slight fire danger risk.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls over the next 10 days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!