Good morning everyone! Overall, we are looking at pleasant weather to end the weekend for the vast majority of the region. A few cloud decks remain in the area as of 9:55am CDT with one situated in south-central KS and some scattered clouds dispersed across northwestern MO into central IA. Low-hanging clouds/fog present in northwestern KS/southwestern NE will likely erode through the morning. Areas of cumulus clouds will likely develop across the region this afternoon.
Mostly quiet weather will continue once again today outside of a few spotty showers and storms across the central and eastern portions of the region. This is where some weak energy resides but with substantial dryness in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, it likely won’t amount to much. The best chance for rain today, though will be isolated, appears to be in far western NE where another weak piece of energy will work into the area.
Here’s the HRRR simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday morning depicting the isolated pop-up nature of a few showers and storms today across portions of the area as well as the isolated shower and storm chances across far western NE. As daytime heating is lost during sunset and afterwards, any hit or miss showers/storms (if any at all) will fade. Isolated showers and storms across far western NE will push slightly further east by 7am CDT Monday.
We are watching for the possibility of strong storms across northeastern NE into northern IA from late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Given steep lapse rates, modest CAPE (or instability) and wind shear, some of these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
More upper-level energy will funnel down from the Northern Plains and the Rockies into the northern portions of the area Monday. Storm coverage will likely remain limited through the mid-afternoon hours Monday before a gradual increase occurs after 3pm CDT in the circled region below. The best forcing will remain near the frontal boundary across northern NE/IA. This is where we expect the most showers and storms, possibly strong, to develop late Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure to the south of this area in KS and MO will keep these locations largely dry, though a couple hit or miss showers/storms can’t be ruled out.
Heading through the nighttime hours Monday into Tuesday morning, more energy will be present across NE and IA. This will lead to continued shower and strong storm chances in these areas. The NAM3km hints at a possible complex of storms diving southeast out of southern MN into northern IA Monday night and given the dynamics at hand, this is not out of the realm of possibility.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Isolated showers and storms will ride along the northern portions of NE/IA through the mid-afternoon hours Monday before an uptick in development is expected near the frontal boundary in these similar areas late Monday afternoon into Monday night. As discussed before, some of these storms may become severe during this timeframe. A possible complex of storms will drop into northern IA after 12am CDT Tuesday with damaging winds the main concern at that time. Without the aid of a low-level jet, this complex will likely weaken as it progresses through central and eastern IA. By 7am CDT Tuesday, the weakening complex will be over IA with scattered showers and storms hanging back west across northwestern IA into northern NE. A vast majority of KS and MO will stay dry during this timeframe as well, though a few hit or miss storms are possible.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday: Rain will be hard to come by through this timespan across KS and MO with only isolated splotches of 0.25-0.75″ of rain possible where any hit or miss development occurs. Most rains will stay confined to northern NE into the northern half of IA. Isolated pockets of 1-2″ of rain is possible, especially in northern IA.
The main focus for showers and storms will remain in the northern portions of the area into mid-week as a stout upper-level ridge is positioned across our southern areas. However, this ridge will begin to migrate eastward into late-week, allowing disturbances to push further east and affect areas that have largely gone unaffected for several days.
Rainfall outlook over the next 7 days is shown below. The far northern areas, especially northeastern NE into northern IA could see multiple rounds of rain this upcoming week leading to heavier amounts. Further south, we remain relatively dry until the frontal boundary drops southward into the late work week. It is important to note again that the GFS model is wetter and slightly further south with the heaviest rains, so some additional fine-tuning will be necessary for the exact placement of these rains over the coming days.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s will be prevalent across the vast majority of the region through this timespan. An advancing cold front from the north will drop temperatures slightly across far northern NE/IA Tuesday.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Warm overnight lows can be expected through the period.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain on the muggy side for September standards as the region lies in the warm sector of a frontal boundary tracking through the Northern Plains.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be relatively stronger across the High Plains. There is a slight fire risk across western NE today where relative humidities will remain low.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Columbia and Salina:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!