Good Tuesday Morning! Here are your updated October Outlooks! Let us know if you have any questions!
Temps:
- The overall thought of October temps have not changed all that much, just a shift of the warmest temps a bit west. We did cool the SE US off a bit.
- GWHDDs are likely to be below last year and below normal thanks to an overall warmer than average pattern, especially along the West Coast.
- The majority of long range data is in rather good agreement at this distance for the Western 2/3 of the US to see above normal temps and the SE US to be the one area that runs the risk of staying slightly cooler than normal for October
- One of the biggest risks – as we have been discussing at length in the Long Range report – is the phase of the MJO. We favor there to be two big warmer risks in Oct, phases 6/7 of the MJO (esp. early in the month), and a + SOI (favors Central US warmth). Both warmer risks have been accounted for in our Oct map.
Precip:
- We have trended drier across the Central portions of the US as well as the OH Valley vs the original thoughts.
- The drier trends are due to a combination of current declining ENSO and tropical forcing analogs. Current top years are 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011
- Thanks to how dry some have been in the OH/ MO/ TN Valleys, we have trended drier for October in those areas. Most long range data is in support of keeping much of the US to see below normal precip. The jet will likely be primarily oriented along the US/ CAN border and will keep the N Plains with better shots of seeing normal / below normal precip.
- One of the bigger risks that always comes with late summer/ early fall precip is tropical risks. Into Oct, the ”usual” tracks of any tropical systems is out to sea or into the East Coast rather than the Gulf. The East Coast is above normal partly due to this risk, while precip likely stays drier than normal in the Gulf