Good morning everyone! The main activity across the region as of 6:20am CDT remains across east-central MN where an overnight complex of storms developed and pushed eastward. These storms should gradually lift out of the state during the morning with some back-building of showers and storms possible on the western periphery of these storms. Low clouds/fog with areas of mist/drizzle are draped across southern ND into MN as well.
The warm front positioned across the region this morning will continue to lift northward throughout the day, with most additional shower/storm development likely after 7pm CDT this evening along and north of this boundary due to isentropic lift (air that is forced upward due to a pre-existing boundary). Steep lapse rates and decent wind shear found in the general vicinity of this boundary will result in storms that develop in the northern third of MN and far northeastern ND to possibly become strong with large hail the main threat, though an isolated damaging wind gust/tornado can’t be ruled out.
Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect heading into this evening: Along with these potentially strong storms, areas of clouds and drizzle will likely be found in SD today with ND and northern MN likely working in these areas of mist/drizzle as the day progresses. Some lighter showers are possible across ND this afternoon before more development occurs to the east of this convection.
The vast majority of this evening’s/tonight’s showers and storms will lift northward into southern Canada overnight. However, a pulse of energy will clip the northwest portions of ND late tonight into Sunday morning, bringing the chance for some showers and perhaps a storm to the area. Another pulse from the south will lift into eastern SD but with plentiful amounts of dry air aloft, shower/storm development is not expected.
A cold front will advance eastward Sunday with showers and storms likely not sparking until the boundary reaches MN after 5pm CDT Sunday. While the severe threat is substantially low with the storms that develop over MN Sunday evening, I can’t rule out a spotty damaging wind gust and hail. More scattered energy will progress into the Dakotas overnight Sunday into Monday with rain/storm risks likely in these areas.
Simulated radar from 1am CDT tonight through 7am CDT Monday: Showers and storms over far northern MN/northeastern ND will lift northward overnight into southern Canada while additional showers and perhaps a storm will clip the northwestern portions of ND into Sunday morning. A short-lived break in activity is expected before convection springs up along the cold front in MN Sunday evening, progressing southeastward overnight into Monday morning. Areas of scattered showers and storms will develop and push eastward across the Dakotas Sunday night into Monday morning.
Here’s a look at total rainfall from the NAM3km model through 7am CDT Monday: A decent amount of the rains depicted over northeastern MN have largely fallen but with strong storm chances this evening across the northern third of MN into northeastern ND, localized 0.5-1.5″ is possible. Lighter rains/drizzle are well highlighted in the grays/lighter green colors across SD into ND.
Here’s a look at 7 day rainfall from the European Model: Heavy rains are looking likely into this upcoming week across eastern SD into central/southern MN.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Cloud cover with a few areas of mist/drizzle will hinder temperatures today across ND, the northern half of MN and northwestern SD with temperatures south of the warm front well into the 80s and low 90s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Minneapolis where heat indices could approach 100ºF today. Temperatures will begin to fall starting Sunday night as the cold front drops southward. Patchy frost is possible Sunday and Monday night across ND and northwestern MN.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Dew points will be elevated for this time of year in the warm sector of the warm front (points south) this weekend before the advancing cold front cuts down on the humidity Monday.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days: Strong winds on Sunday along with low relative humidities could lead to an increased risk for fire danger in southwest SD.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls over the next 10 days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!