Good morning everyone! Overall, we are looking at another fantastic day of sunshine for most areas. A few cloud decks remain in the area as of 9:45am CDT with one situated along the NE/SD border, another in central IA, and the last main feature along the central KS/OK border. Areas of cumulus clouds will likely develop across portions of the region with the low-level clouds along the NE/SD border lifting north. Increased cloud cover is possible in south-central KS as isolated rain chances lift northward.
Mostly quiet weather will continue today outside of some spotty showers and storms in central/eastern KS into MO where some weak upper-level energy and instability resides. A few pop-ups could develop as far north as central IA. Given a stout upper-level high pressure system stationed over the area, these rain chances will remain rather localized with a majority of the area still remaining dry. The best chance today for rain is in south-central KS where some convection from OK will likely lift northward, though it will be gradually weakening. A spotty shower or storm is possible around the region tonight into tomorrow morning.
Here’s the HRRR simulated radar through 12am CDT tonight depicting the isolated pop-up shower and storm chances in the circled region today: As daytime heating is lost, any hit or miss storms in the area should fade.
There will be more energy hanging around the area tomorrow but with some dryness in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, rain chances won’t amount to much. Some spotty showers and storms are possible as pieces of energy lift northward across the area, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours across KS, eastern NE, IA and MO. As is the case with today, these won’t be widespread but rather isolated, leaving most areas dry once again. A better chance for isolated showers and storms can be found in western NE where better forcing from a low-level jet can be found Sunday evening.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Rain will be hard to come by through the weekend with only isolated risks for 0.25-0.75″ of rain found near the central border of KS/OK. This model does highlight splotches of gray which is the model trying to interpret the spotty nature of the pop-ups in the region.
The main focus for showers and storms won’t be until mid-week as a frontal boundary drops southward out of the Northern Plains into the northern portions of our area. An upper-level high pressure system located over the southern portions of the region will force most rain chances to the north, giving NE and IA the risks for rounds of showers and storms. As we get into late week, the front will finally push southward bringing scattered shower/storm risks south and east Thursday and Friday.
Rainfall outlook over the next 7 days is shown below. The far northern areas could see multiple rounds of rain this upcoming week leading to heavier amounts. Further south, we remain relatively dry until the frontal boundary drops southward mid to late week. It is important to note that the GFS model is wetter and slightly further south with the heaviest rains, so some fine-tuning will be needed for the exact placement of these rains over the coming days.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s will be prevalent across the vast majority of the region through this timespan. An advancing cold front from the north will begin to drop temperatures across far northern NE/IA Tuesday.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Warm overnight lows can be expected through the period.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain on the muggy side for September standards as the region remains in the warm sector of a warm/cold front tracking through the Northern Plains.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be stronger across the High Plains. There is a slight fire risk across western NE where winds will gust to 25-30 mph through the weekend and low relative humidities are likely.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Columbia and Salina:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!