Good afternoon everyone! Activity is beginning to increase across the region with some lighter rains across northwestern ND and a few isolated showers/storms popping near the central/eastern ND/SD border as of 4:10pm CDT. This new development is likely the start of an increase in coverage heading into the evening and overnight hours. Some pockets of mist/drizzle can also be noted across SD.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted far eastern ND into northern MN for the some of the storms that develop into tonight to become strong/severe with large hail the main threat.
Showers spreading through northwestern ND will continue to clip the northern portions of the state through 12am CDT tonight. As the warm front lifts northward this evening into tonight, warm air advection (warmer air spreading northward) and a strengthening low-level jet will aid in the development of showers and storms through the evening and overnight hours across eastern half of ND/northeastern SD into the northern half of MN. This will be especially true as storms gain coverage mainly after 10pm CDT tonight. Storms that develop in far eastern ND into northern MN will likely start off strong initially, but as the storms progress northeastward overnight this threat will likely decrease (though still remain). Areas of mist/drizzle are likely to continue across SD tonight with even portions of ND west of the main development possibly receiving drizzle. By 7am CDT Saturday (time this simulated radar runs through below), most shower/storm activity will be residing in northeastern and east-central MN.
A few areas of patchy dense fog (darker colors) are possible in the region tomorrow morning, especially in southwestern SD and far northern ND. Low-level clouds, showers and storms will also likely keep visibilities down in northeastern MN.
The warm front positioned across the region through tonight will continue to lift northward through the day Saturday, with most additional shower/storm development likely during the late afternoon and evening hours along and north of this boundary due to isentropic lift (air that is forced upward due to a pre-existing boundary). Steep lapse rates will be found in the general vicinity of this boundary, resulting in storms that develop in the northern third of MN to possibly become strong with large hail once again the main threat. An isolated damaging wind gust/tornado can’t be ruled out.
Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect heading into Saturday evening: Along with these potentially strong storms, areas of low clouds and drizzle will be found in ND and the northern half of MN during the day with ND and eastern MN possibly still receiving mist/drizzle into Sunday morning.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Saturday through 7am CDT Sunday: Most areas will likely catch a slight break from the storms during the day tomorrow with areas of drizzle persisting across portions of the region due the frontal boundary remaining across the region. Saturday morning showers and storms will lift out of east-central/northeastern MN with a few isolated showers and storms hanging back across northern MN. Lighter rains or perhaps drizzle will increase in coverage heading into the evening hours across ND and northern MN with showers and storms developing along the warm front across the northern third of MN and northeastern ND during the evening. Most of this convection will lift northward out of the region Saturday night into southern Canada, though areas of drizzle will persist even into Sunday morning.
Here’s a look at total rainfall from the NAM3km model through 7am CDT Sunday morning: Pockets of 0.25-0.75″ of rain are also possible in eastern ND/far northeastern SD as more showers and storms develop this evening.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!