Have a blessed day! -Kirk
August forecast verification:
Updated October forecast:
Temperatures:
- No adjustments to our preliminary October outlook. Our top analogs remain 2010, 2007 and 2005 with years like 2017, 2016, 2013, 2011, 1999, 1998 and 1996 usable years for the fall.
- Taking a look at these years as a whole, they favor widespread warmer than normal conditions. When we break things down further, years that were in La Niña states in recent years also favor warmth – though the last 5 years have been warmer further east vs. La Niña years which have tended to be warmer in the Central US.
- A few analogs do suggest warmth more in to the NE US and Great Lakes vs. the Rockies and Plains, which would be the main risk to our forecast, but the overall idea for October is warm.
- With that being said, the risk is that if the Western Pacific continues to be active, any recurves could present cooler risks. However, the La Niña state would tend to favor a +SOI which flips to a warm Central US signal in October.
Precipitation:
- No changes to our precipitation outlook, but we want to continue to mention a few risks associated with our forecast. Tropical climatology works east in October which would favor more East Coast risks and this could lead to a drier threat in the Midwest.
- Some of our analogs would also suggest much below normal risks from Texas and the Deep South to the TN Valley. This is not uncommon in La Niña years with lack of a sub-tropical jet stream and the warmer temperatures. If there’s a drier risk to our forecast it would be from Iowa to the Ohio Valley in October.
- Conversely, if recurving typhoons set up in October and cooler air develops in the Central US similar to the last two years, it would be a wetter risk to our forecast.
- It is worth noting that overall the end of summer and early fall has trended away from last year – which does give us a little more confidence of going against the grain of the similar patterns from the last two years which were El Niño’s loaded with moisture in October.