Good morning everyone! Scattered showers and storms have begun to exit the far southeastern portions of MN as of 10:15am CDT, but a few remaining showers and storms in northeastern IA may clip this area over the next hour or so. Elsewhere, isolated areas of showers and weaker storms are traversing northern SD. Model guidance is keen on weakening this convection abruptly but I expect it to last into the early afternoon hours as it works further northeast.
There is a severe weather threat for today, mainly across central SD where widely scattered strong storms are expected to develop later this afternoon through the nighttime hours. Northward-surging low-level moisture under steep lapse rates will likely initiate these storms, with the potential for isolated large hail and damaging winds accompanying these storms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Southern MN and far southeastern SD will be the focus for heavy rains again overnight tonight through Monday. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will increase the flood threat as storms train over the same areas.
Simulated radar through 4pm CDT today: Areas of showers and storms clipping for southeastern portions of MN will lift out during the afternoon hours. While not well-modeled, isolated pockets of showers/storms will work northeastward across northern SD as well. A few spotty showers may linger across the far southern portions of the region after the disturbance in southeastern MN lifts out.
We are eyeing a return of heavy showers and storms, possibly strong, across far eastern SD into the central and southern portions of MN during the overnight hours tonight. This will likely affect the area shortly after widely scattered storm development occurs across portions of ND/SD this evening/early night.
Simulated radar from 4pm CDT this afternoon through 7am CDT Sunday: This model is likely underdone with widely scattered storms firing across ND in association with a shortwave trough lifting through. The HRRR model is more aggressive with these storms this evening and eventually central/eastern SD and eastern ND overnight, so we wanted to convey the possible threat. These storms may be strong as previously discussed. The NAM3km (shown below) only keeps these shower and storm chances isolated across those areas, but increases storm threats dramatically overnight across far eastern SD into central/southern MN. Heavy showers and storms will likely begin to lift into these areas after 12am CDT tonight before progressing northeastward. A few lingering areas of convection are possible across the Dakotas into far northern MN by 7am CDT Sunday with heavy persisting rain likely in central and southern MN.
This batch of heavier rains will start to lift out of the area Sunday morning with some areas likely still being affected by showers and storms by the lunch hour: Southeastern MN and portions of northern MN. Both are associated with pieces of energy so it is a good bet to expect some form of rains in these parts by the start of the Sunday afternoon.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: Heavier showers and storms will lift through most of central and southern MN through the morning and early afternoon hours. A small patch of showers/storms is likely to persist in southeastern MN through most of Sunday afternoon, gradually lifting out of this part of MN by 8pm CDT Sunday. Isolated, lingering showers and possibly a storm may continue across the region through the remainder of Sunday, though it is more likely across the far southern portions. Most energy from late afternoon through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday will remain just south of the Northern Plains. Can’t rule out a few stray showers and storms making their way northward into far southern SD/MN during this timeframe. An additional round of heavier showers and storms will lift northward during the day Monday.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Heavier doses of rain will leave a general 0.5-1.5″ of rain across central and southern portions of MN. Some isolated pockets of 2-3.5″ are possible pending where the heaviest rains set up. Rainfall may be underdone across portions of the Dakotas with the showers and storms expected this evening through the overnight. I can’t rule out a quick 0.5-1″ of rain where it storms in this part of the region.
Numerous rain chances will develop across eastern SD into the southern half of MN though mid next week, resulting in multiple chances for heavy rain totals. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3″ is likely across southeastern SD into the southern third of MN over the next 7 days with totals dropping off further north and west. Localized 3-5″ can’t be ruled out across far southern MN given the high moisture content in the atmosphere through this time.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s for most of the region. Overnight lows in the 60s will be common across the southern portions of the area.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: There will be a stark contrast between the northwestern and southeastern areas through a majority of this period. Drier air will be located across the northwestern areas while more humid air will be located across the southeastern areas.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great Labor Day Weekend!