***If you received a special update this morning, be sure to check out the video that comes attached to that update!***
Good morning everyone! We are continuing to track a very heavy rain producer across the state of IA as of 8:25am CDT. Some scattered shower and storm development is also occurring in northern MO while energy hanging back across western KS into south-central NE is sparking areas of showers and storms. The main feature in IA will continue to affect mostly the central and eastern portions of the state through the morning before gradually lifting out of the area this afternoon.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been continuously issued this morning with some of the storms hanging just to the west of this main feature. I expect isolated strong storms to continue through the morning hours with this system. Looking ahead to later today, more areas of heavy, strong storms are likely once again as a stalled frontal boundary sits over the central portions of the area. These storms will have a severe threat attached to them through the evening and overnight hours. The same story can be said heading into tomorrow with a greater focus shifted to IA and eastern NE/northeastern KS. Large hail, damaging winds, and/or a few isolated tornadoes are possible each day, even during the morning and at night. Morning cloud cover may limit some of the extent of severe weather today but a slight risk may be issued by the SPC this afternoon in the general vicinity of Omaha/north of Kansas City given the dynamics.
Flash flooding will be the main threat with these storms through Monday as heavy storms will likely train over the same areas. Multiple disturbances riding along the northwest periphery of an upper-level ridge in the Eastern US will provide several opportunities for these heavy rains. Eastern NE, northern KS, into most of IA is under the greatest threat.
Simulated radar through 4pm CDT this afternoon: The batch of heavy storms plaguing central and eastern IA at this time will slowly lift out of the state early afternoon with widely scattered showers and storms likely persisting across eastern NE, northeastern KS, northern MO, and IA during the early to mid afternoon hours. A few of these storms may be severe. Convection in western KS will lift northeastward as well. A new wave of energy may work into western KS again after 12pm CDT.
Some partial clearing in storm activity is possible heading into the early afternoon hours across the region, though storm chances will remain as discussed above. It isn’t until late this afternoon into tonight when numerous areas of heavy, strong storms develop along the frontal boundary in the circled region below. Upper-level energy will align along the almost stationary frontal boundary late this afternoon into tonight and with upper-air flow nearly parallel to the boundary, multiple areas of storms will likely train, increasing the flood threat.
Simulated radar from 4pm CDT this afternoon through 7am CDT Sunday: An additional round of heavy showers and storms, possibly strong, will ignite across southern/eastern NE, northern/western KS, far northern MO, and IA late this afternoon through tonight. These storms will likely trail in a line through the evening and overnight hours across these areas, leading to very heavy rainfall amounts. Some of the energy will begin to lift northward overnight, slowly migrating some of these rains further into northern IA with pulses of showers and storms continuing in the previously mentioned areas. By the end of this loop (7am CDT Sunday), convection will begin to fade in intensity, though with energy remaining and a decent low-level jet persisting, I can’t rule out more coverage than what is shown across southeastern NE, central/northeastern KS, and IA.
Another timeframe to watch for another wave of strong, heavy thunderstorms will be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as an additional disturbance works into the Central Plains. The same areas affected by storms today through tomorrow morning will likely observe these storms again Sunday evening and night. The flooding risk will definitely be high with this wave as these rains fall on areas that have likely already observed heavy rainfall amounts.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: Most areas of convection likely fade over the region during the late morning and early afternoon hours Sunday before an uptick in coverage is expected once more during the afternoon/evening hours across a large portion of KS, central/eastern NE, northwestern MO, and IA. Complexes of storms will work northeastward through these areas overnight Sunday into Monday, putting down very heavy rains. This will prove to be a very wet Labor Day Weekend for many. By the end of this loop (7am CDT Monday), heavy, strong storms will be persisting across the previously mentioned areas.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Tuesday: Widespread 2-4″ rainfall amounts is expected across eastern NE, central/northern KS, and IA. Isolated pockets of 3-6″+ of rain cannot be ruled out given the persistent waves of energy pushing through the region and high moisture content present in the atmosphere. A few areas will likely remain drier, including northwestern NE and southern/southeastern MO.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: An active pattern will continue through the course of the upcoming week with multiple rounds of showers and storms, especially across KS, southern/eastern NE, IA, and far northern MO where 2-5″ of rain is likely with locally 4-8″+ not out of the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, areas across far northwestern NE and southern MO likely see little rain.
High temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures will likely range from the upper 80s to lower 90s south of the corridor where disturbances will follow (KS and MO).
Low temperatures over the next four days: Due to the surplus in moisture across the region, overnight lows will struggle to fall into the 60s.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain quite high for this time of year through the period.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
Temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Jefferson City, Lincoln and Salina:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great Labor Day Weekend!