Good Sunday morning everyone! A vast majority of the region this is dry as of 10:20am CDT with scattered showers/storms working their way northeastward into the far southern portions of SD.
Another day of impactful storms is on tap across our southern areas as discussed in the graphic below. The greatest threat for severe is draped just south of our area in NE/IA but storms that develop in southern SD/MN could produce large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through tonight.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday: Uncertainty exists with the evolution of storms over the southern portions of the area this afternoon/evening as hi-resolution models are all over the place with their solutions. Regardless, showers and storms are expected to push northeastward into southern SD over the next several hours with southern MN eventually receiving showers/storms after 2-3pm CDT. Additional development just to the south of this area of rain is likely late this afternoon into late evening that likely will have severe implications. However, a majority of this area should stay just to our south with the northern fringes of this activity extending as far north as the southern counties in both SD and MN. Storm activity will spread eastward overnight where far southern MN may still be receiving the impacts of these storms, potentially severe. Behind the disturbance causing all these problems, additional isolated areas of showers/storms are possible overnight.
A lesser threat exists along the SD/ND border tonight with additional upper-level energy working into the area. It is unlikely these storms will become severe but gusty winds and small hail can’t be ruled out. Another area will follow behind this one late Monday evening in the same areas.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: The remnants of today/tonight’s storms will be exiting the region to the southeast. Isolated showers/storms may spark late Monday afternoon/evening in far southern MN while that second disturbance along the ND/SD border brings isolated/widely sct’d storm risks to those areas before weakening overnight in eastern SD. A vast majority of the region should be dry by the end of this loop (7am CDT Tuesday)
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday: The greatest threat for rain will be confined to portions of southern SD/MN. Storms that develop in those areas through tonight can dump 0.5″-1″ of rain with locally 2″+ of rain possible, especially in the southern 2 rows of counties in MN. Showers/storms become more isolated/widely scattered in northern SD into southern ND. A quick 0.5-1″ of rain is possible between two disturbances that push through those areas as shown by the upper-level energy graphic.
Here’s a look at 7-day rainfall totals from the American Model: A majority of the global models continue to depict a majority of the rains staying confined to southern SD/MN through the period, with most of the rain falling through Monday. The model may be underdone on scattered rain chances along the ND/SD border. After Monday, the pattern will become inactive with only isolated rain chances heading into next weekend.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures will be lower today compared to yesterday with low to mid 80s being prevalent across the region. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop even more Monday with most in the 70s, though, a few 80 degree readings will be likely in SD. Overnight lows will be cooler tonight as well before a gradual increase lows occur for most Monday night. Some 40 degree readings are likely in far northern MN tonight and Monday night.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain elevated today across eastern SD into southern MN. Dew points will stay in the 60s/70s in southern MN into mid-week.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will by gusty over some locations through the rest of today with a decrease in winds expected heading into Monday.
Here’s a look at the European Model 10-day temperature, rain, and wind charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck, and Sioux Falls.
Another update will come in a couple hours for SD and MN. If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a good day!