Good Sunday morning everyone! An active morning has evolved over portions of IA as an MCS (Mesoscale Convection System) developed over the far northwestern portions of the state. Since then it has took a dive towards the southeast, currently impacting locations in central/northeast IA as of 6:40am CDT. Over the last couple of hours it had exhibited a weakening trend but recently has shown an uptick in storms along the leading edge. While it is entering a less favorable environment, I expect this line to persist further east into eastern IA. I can’t rule out some small hail and gusty winds during its trek east. Elsewhere, widely scattered showers can be found across portions of NE with some convection about to work into far northwest IA.
Today will be an active day as the frontal boundary that brought some strong storms in the Northern Plains works its way south. In the graphic I provided a synopsis of the severe weather threat for today. Steep lapse rates (change in temperature with altitude), high instability, strong vertical wind shear, and low-level moisture will all provide an environment that is suitable for any storms that develop in the region along the frontal boundary to possibly become severe this afternoon and persisting into the nighttime hours.
Hi-resolution models have trended more aggressive with the convection today across NE into IA with the development of discrete cells early on across portions of western/northern NE that would have a hail and isolated tornado threat before these storms congeal during the evening/overnight becoming more of a wind threat. Storms are expected to fire in isolated amounts after 12pm CDT this afternoon with coverage increasing after 2pm CDT over portions of NE. These storms are expected to track into eastern NE/western IA this evening and continuing into the overnight hours. Portions of western/northern KS can also receive these storms this evening into the overnight with some localized hail and gusty winds as well. Shown below is the HRRR simulated radar through 10pm CDT.
Simulated radar from 10pm CDT tonight through 10am CDT Monday: Widespread storms are expected to persist over portions of NE and IA (especially northern IA) through the nighttime hours. As discussed before, these storms may still be severe at times during the night with hail and damaging winds the primary threats. During the morning hours activity will weaken somewhat but continue in scattered amounts over far eastern NE into IA. Light showers are possible in northern KS/MO into the morning.
Simulated radar from 10am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: The far northern areas will likely dry out during this period as the front continues to sag southward. Isolated to widely scattered storms will fire along the front in northeast KS, northern MO, and southeastern IA after 1pm CDT Monday before dying out the instability/lift that drove these storms to initiation lessens. More upper-level energy lifting out of the Rockies will increase storm chances overnight Monday into Tuesday across western KS first before pushing east into eastern KS/northern MO during the morning hours Tuesday. Far southern NE/IA may receive some of these rains.
Here’s a look at rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Widespread rains, at times heavy, are possible in portions of northeast NE into northern IA. Spotty showers/storms are possible in MO but most in the state will remain dry. More discussion regarding rains in NE and IA are below.
The frontal boundary will pull southward through early work week providing storms chances over portions of the region during this time, though they become more scattered in nature across KS and MO. A slight uptick in rainfall is possible in far southern MO late Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening in the Western Plains. After Wednesday, most of the area stays dry with only isolated storm chances through next weekend. European Model 7-day rainfall is shown below.
High temperatures over the next four days: Warmth will be persistent across a majority of the area today with many locations rising into the 90s for highs. A cold front will drift southward today into early work week, dropping temperatures behind it. To the south of this boundary, highs in the 90s are expected.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows will rise heading into Monday morning with many locations across KS and MO only dipping into the low-mid 70s. Lows will fall into the 60s across portions of NE and IA.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will be somewhat elevated across portions of the area through Wednesday. Drier air will nudge its way into portions of the Western Plains at times during this period.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds once again may gust to as high as 30mph before we see a gradual decrease in winds early work week.
Here’s a look at the European model 10-day temperature, rain, and wind charts for Des Moines, Lincoln, Wichita, and Springfield.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a good day!