Good Sunday Morning!
A current look at radar shows we are dry across the state aside from a few cells in extreme NW MN:
The past 24 hour rainfall accumulation. We have seen almost all of our precip in the past 24 hours come in the NE part of the state with only a few scattered storms near Minneapolis snd SE near Rochester:
Today we think that we could be looking at somewhat of an active day precipitation wise. We are watching an area of upper level energy (darker shades of red) work from W to E across the state in the afternoon/evening hours. Right now the thinking is that the majority of precip today comes in the northern and central portions of the state as this is where we see the strongest levels of energy. We do want to mention there is some risk with this forecast as data has not been performing exceptionally well in the Northern Plains. Some of our more accurate and reliable models have been differing from each other quite a bit so this is a slightly lower confidence forecast. The loop is from 10 AM CT until 7 PM CT today:
A simulated radar loop from 11 AM CT today until 10 PM CT tonight reflects that thought as we think there is the possibility of some strong to severe weather across the state. Current thinking is that the area with the best shot at severe weather is the Northern half of the state. We also don’t think this model is depicting enough intensity and coverage that we could see this afternoon and evening, especially in the northern third of the state:
Area we are currently favoring for the highest chances of severe weather today and tonight. Right now our two highest threats of severe weather are damaging winds and large hail. This is not to say that we can’t see severe weather outside of this area, but this is where we think the best potential currently lies:
Highs today look to be in the mid to upper 80s across MN. The one thing that can really limit our highs is precipitation, so precipitation overhead during the peak afternoon hours can really put a cap on highs today:
Tonight we think there can be some dry hours around midnight in N MN, but think that activity can pick back up closer to the morning rush for the area circled in the image above. Below is simulated radar from 1 AM CT Mon Morning until 8 AM CT Mon Morning:
Highs tomorrow look to be slightly cooler, we are favoring upper 70s/low 80s for much of the state:
We think tomorrow during the day we slowly start to shift the precip into primarily S MN and eventually work the precip out of the area. We still have to keep a close eye on the S quarter of the state tomorrow as this model and a few others are hinting at the potential for some severe weather tomorrow evening. Below is a simulated radar from 10 AM CT Monday until 9 PM CT Monday evening:
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT Monday. As mentioned, there is lower confidence/ higher risk in this forecast period. The area circled in red is one that models are differing on precip totals. We do think there is going to be precip in this area and the potential for storm activity tomorrow afternoon and evening is there, but the area in red may be a touch overdone by this model and we would see precip totals closer to 0.5 to 1.0 inches with local amounts of 1.5+ inches. The majority of the precip in N MN during the next 36 hours will come this afternoon through Monday morning, and the majority of precip in S MN looks to come later Monday morning through Monday evening:
As always, please reach out to us at [email protected] if you have any questions! Have a great rest of your Sunday!