Good Saturday morning everyone! Most of last night’s storm activity has exited the region with scattered showers/storms persisting across central ND as of 6:30am CDT. The remnants of the storms from the Central Plains have worked northeastward into far eastern SD and southern MN. The last area we are watching is an isolated patch of rain trekking eastward along the SD/NE border. This patch of rain is expected to slowly weaken during its progression eastward through the morning hours. The swath of rain pushing in from the Central Plains will lift northeast through the morning before exiting a majority of eastern MN by mid afternoon today. A few of the embedded storms in this swath of rain may become strong this morning with gusty winds and small hail. Shower/storm activity in ND will progress eastward, pushing into northwest MN after 12pm CDT this afternoon. This might be an area that will need to be watched for the development of strong storms this afternoon.
As discussed above, there is a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While many ingredients are coming together to make an environment suitable for severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Dakotas and western MN, morning convection may inhibit coverage of afternoon/evening storms as well as their severity. While not a big concern, an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled. It’s an area worth monitoring and an afternoon update will be needed. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible elsewhere.
Simulated radar through 4am CDT Sunday: Morning convection mentioned before will lift eastward with most activity exiting the region mid afternoon. Scattered development is expected after 2pm CDT near or just north of Fargo, ND progressing into northern MN through late afternoon and the evening hours. More storms may fire southward into southwest MN/eastern SD which also pose a severe weather risk, though, their coverage remains uncertain at this time. If the atmosphere can destabilize enough through early afternoon, western MN and the far eastern Dakotas could work in more severe storm coverage than what is currently depicted. A broken line of showers/storms will likely spark to the west in central ND after 6pm CDT but will weaken heading into eastern ND. Any storm activity this evening will push eastward while gradually diminishing in coverage overnight. A few patches of isolated showers/storms are likely to remain across portions of ND/MN through the night.
The active pattern we’re observing will continue late tonight into tomorrow as an additional wave of energy will lift into the southern portions of the region from the Rockies, providing risks for showers and storms across these areas.
Simulated radar from 4am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: Shower/storm coverage will increase across SD from late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, gradually spreading into southern MN late Sunday morning. Gusty winds and small hail may accompany the storms with this convection tomorrow. By evening, coverage will likely be limited to southern MN but back-building is possible into far southeast SD/southwest MN early Sunday night. Elsewhere, very isolated areas of showers/storms may remain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: The heaviest rains will be confined to portions of southern SD/MN. A general 0.25-0.75″ of rain can be expected in these areas with locally 2″ possible in a few spots. Rains will be more scattered across the rest of the area with some not receiving a drop of rain. Some localized locations in central ND and far northern MN may pick up 1″ of rain.
Here’s a look at the 7-day rainfall totals from the American Model: A majority of the global models have latched onto a majority of the rains affecting southern SD/MN through this period, especially over the next couple of days. After Monday, the pattern will become less active with minimal rains.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Another warm day is on tap across the Dakotas before the heat begins to subside Sunday and especially Monday. Overnight lows will cool somewhat Sunday night with a gradual increase once again Monday and Tuesday night.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain high today across eastern SD into MN with dew points staying in the 60s/70s in southern MN into early work week.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will be gusty over a few locations through the weekend with a decrease in winds expected heading into early work week.
Here’s a look at the European Model 10-day temperature, rain, and wind charts for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck, and Sioux Falls.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a good weekend!