Good evening everyone! Areas of lighter showers continue to work their way through portions of MN with stronger cells progressing across central MN as of 6pm CDT. The vast majority of the Dakotas are quiet as of now.
The lone storms across west-central MN are the start of what is expected to be an active evening and early night across the state as additional storms are expected to fire in the next few hours and push east. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds and/or a couple isolated tornadoes. Convective inhibition (a negating factor for storm development) remains quite high across the state, especially in southern MN. Due to these circumstances, storms in southern MN may have a tough time developing.
The most favorable ingredients remain across central MN and this all happens to be the location of greatest upper-level energy. We are eyeing this area in particular for strong storms through the evening before storms congeal more into a line, leading to an increased damaging wind threat in central MN. Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect going through the evening and overnight hours: A few isolated storms may lag behind the main feature across northern MN overnight.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Saturday: This model is likely overdone on storm coverage across MN given the negating factors currently present in the atmosphere. None-the-less, I can’t rule out its solution given the other dynamics suitable for strong storms in the region. Additional scattered strong to severe storms should develop in the next few hours across far eastern SD into western MN before becoming more of a wind threat late this evening into the early overnight as storms congeal into a line. The HRRR and NSSL aren’t too keen on this idea, but as discussed, there is the possibility. Most of these storms overnight will exit MN with the southeast portions of the state likely to see the last of this feature by 5am CDT Saturday. With energy hanging back across western SD, a few isolated pockets of showers and storms are possible through the night into tomorrow morning. This will also hold true across northern MN with isolated storm chances persisting through the night. Energy from IA and eastern NE will begin to lift north early Saturday morning, continuing storm chances for southeastern SD into far southern MN.
The graphic below highlights the energy lifting out of the Central Plains nicely Saturday morning. Storm risks will continue in southeastern SD and southern MN through Saturday morning. A few of these storms may be strong. While a majority of this energy will likely stay just south of the area through the day, I can’t rule out some heavier rains clipping far southern MN. Composite radar wants to weaken this area substantially late morning into the early afternoon but with energy in place, isolated storm chances will persist through the day.
This disturbance will lift out of the southern portions of the region as Saturday progresses, creating a lull in storm chances. A new disturbance will bring widely scattered storm chances to the Dakotas late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Northwestern MN will likely be impacted by this disturbance overnight Saturday.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Saturday through 7am CDT Sunday: Showers and storms clipping the far southern portions of MN into southeastern SD will lift out early Saturday afternoon. Drier weather will commence during this time, but given the pattern it won’t last long as more rounds of showers and storms further south will try to work their way into these areas early Sunday morning. Widely scattered storms will spark after 6pm CDT across the Western Dakotas and push eastward through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours, reaching central and eastern ND/SD during this time. Northwestern MN will begin to be impacted after 12am CDT Sunday with more storms possible into Sunday morning.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 7am CDT Sunday: The NAM3km is picking up on areas where storms may develop this evening into tonight across MN. The central portions of MN have the best potential to see rainfall with localized 1-2″ possible. Even with storm chances persisting across southern MN, the convective inhibition may limit their rains. Isolated pockets of 0.25-1″ of rain is possible where it storms in the Dakotas.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great Labor Day Weekend!