Good Friday afternoon!
Here is a look at current radar. We are seeing much of the state stay dry with only the extreme SW counties seeing very scattered light rain:
For the rest of the afternoon and evening, we think the majority of the state stays dry, the one place that could see some hit and miss rain is SW MN based on what is moving through SD right now. Our precip chances look to increase as we work later into the overnight hours and then throughout the day tomorrow. Below is a look at upper level energy from 7 PM CT today until 7 PM tomorrow. We are watching an area of rain work its way into the state during the day tomorrow and mainly affect the S 2/3 of the state (darker shades of orange/red):
Below is the look at simulated radar from 7 PM CT this evening until 7 AM CT tomorrow morning. Most of the state looks to stay dry in the evening to early overnight hours before some scattered precip looks to work into the state around sunrise. The majority of the heavier/ more widespread rains don’t come until the PM hours:
Working into tomorrow, we are expecting the heaviest of rains to come in the late AM/ early PM hours. Here is a loop of mid level relative humidity from 7 PM CT this evening until 1 AM CT Sun Morning. We can see that higher amounts of moisture in the atmosphere (darker blues and purples) really start to work into the state from W to E near the middle of the loop (middle of Saturday):
Simulated radar from 7 AM CT tomorrow morning until 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. We can see that as we work later into the morning and early PM, our area of rain really starts to come into the state affecting SW and W Central MN. Precip should linger until the later PM hours before we see our rain and storms work their way off to the east:
Highs tomorrow look to be in the upper 60s to low 70s for the N half of MN. We think SW MN should be the coolest part of MN with the rain really limiting our highs and keeping that area in the upper 50s/ low 60s. We also think that this model may be a touch overdone in SE MN where we could be looking at highs more in the upper 60s/ low 70s:
A look at modeled precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Sat evening. Overall we favor this model as it aligns pretty good with our thinking about precip amounts. The area circled in red looks to receive the highest amounts of rainfall in the next 24 hours with a general 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain with some localized spots of 1+” of rain by tomorrow evening. The area in black we think is a hit and miss 0.1-0.5 inches of rain as this will be much more scattered and does not look to be as heavy. The area circled in green we think has a small shot at seeing some very isolated precip in the late afternoon/ evening hours on Sat. Right now we are putting that around a 20-30% chance of seeing something as we think the majority of precip works further north in Canada, but the risk still needs to be mentioned of some isolated acitivity. Overall N Central MN should stay on the dry side with only a few, light, stray showers possible:
Please reach out to [email protected] with any questions you have! Enjoy the rest of your Friday!