Good evening everyone! The region remains relatively quiet as of 5:40pm CDT. This will likely change as we progress further into the evening as energy in place across the area likely will develop isolated to scattered storm chances. Here’s a brief overview of what to expect as we continue through the evening and overnight hours: While not a large threat, I can’t rule out some of the storms across the southern 2/3rds of MN becoming strong to severe with gusty winds and hail the main threats.
By 7am CDT Friday, upper-level energy from this evening will have pushed further east with two distinct areas we’re watching for the chances of showers and storms. The southern branch of energy will likely bring scattered morning convection across eastern SD into the southern half of MN while the northern branch creates areas of scattered showers and storms across ND into far northwestern MN.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Friday: The first wave of energy will progress into the southern 2/3rds of MN overnight where a coverage in showers and storms of 40-50% can be anticipated. Showers and storms across the western Dakotas will remain rather isolated until late overnight when convection increases substantially across portions of ND. Overnight convection across MN is expected to persist into the morning hours. By the end of this loop (7am CDT), the far northwest portions of MN will begin to work in shower and storm activity from eastern ND. Given the dynamics at play across the region, a few storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail, even into Friday morning. Isolated storm chances are expected across SD through this timespan.
We will be watching the eastern portions of the Dakotas into MN Friday afternoon and evening for additional strong storms, given that some early-day clearing is possible across eastern SD into MN, a strengthening low-level jet and a frontal boundary will be draped across the area. We cannot rule out a few isolated tornadoes, however, the main threat appears to be damaging winds and large hail. The second image below is for Friday’s severe weather threat areas via the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
Friday morning shower and storm activity across ND will lift eastward into the early afternoon hours. Early afternoon clearing is expected to destabilize the atmosphere to the point that scattered showers and storms, likely strong, will ignite across the far eastern Dakotas into western MN. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. A few broken complexes of storms may clip the far northeast portions of ND into northern MN Friday evening into the overnight. With upper-level energy likely hanging around Friday night into early Saturday morning, additional flare-ups in convection is possible, mainly across southeastern SD into southern MN. Simulated radar from 7am CDT Friday through 7am CDT Saturday:
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 7am CDT Saturday: Storm chances will be greatest across MN with lesser likelihood for rains the further west you go. Areas of 0.5-1″ of rain can be expected across portions of MN with locally 1-2″+ not out of the question. Where it storms in the eastern Dakotas, a general 0.25-1″ is likely. Even with upper-level energy lifting into the western Dakotas, rain chances will remain rather isolated.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!