Good Saturday morning!
A check on radar shows that we are still looking at rain falling in the far E sections of Nebraska and South Dakota:
We think that this rain can persist in this area for a few more hours before we start to slowly turn this area of rain from more widespread to more scattered. Below is a simulated radar loop from 8 AM CT until noon CT today. Again, the majority of rain will be focused to the E thirds of both states. Another way we can see the diminishing of this rain is looking at the modeled upper level energy. We can see the higher amounts of energy (darker reds that are circled) are much more prominent at 8 AM than they are at 1 PM today :
As this area of rain slowly loses its coverage and intensity, we think there will be some scattered activity in this area for the rest of the afternoon. We also want to watch the W parts of the states as there looks to be some storms moving in as we work into the late afternoon/early evening hours. Below is a modeled look at simulated radar from 4 PM CT until 10 PM CT:
Highs today look to be in the upper 70s/low 80s (lighter reds/oranges) in the E half of NE & SD where we have the potential of rain and storms to keep things cooler, with temps in the mid to upper 80s for the W half of the states:
Winds will generally be out of the SE at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts hitting 15 mph:
Tomorrow looks to be okay across both states with only some widely scattered pop ups, mainly focused in the afternoon and evening hours. We are looking at the potential for some stronger storms to work their way into the W parts of the states in the evening, very similar to what could happen tonight. Below is simulated radar from 10 AM CT Sun until 10 PM CT Sun:
Highs tomorrow should be much warmer than today, looking at low to mid 80s for the E halves of the states and upper 80s/low 90s for the W halves of NE/SD:
A look at upper level energy vs simulated radar at 10 PM CT tomorrow. We could be looking at some stronger storms tomorrow evening in the W parts of the states, mainly focused in SD. An update will be needed tomorrow to detail exact timing and location of the highest threats. Right now these do look like some of these cells could be severe with the main threat being hail and damaging winds:
A look at rainfall guidance out through Sunday evening at 7 PM CT. This image does not include the storm potential Sunday evening in W SD/NE. We think the area circled could have too high of totals as this model is showing totals for some rain that has already fallen. We think a general 0.25 to 0.75 inches of additional rain can fall in this area over the next 36 hours, however we can see some spots certainly pick up higher amounts than that (1.5 inches +), but it will be more localized. We will also have to watch out for totals in the W portions of the states between the potential rounds of storms Saturday night and Sunday night. This will be very hit or miss based on the nature of the storms, but we could see some very localized totals of 2+ inches if a location gets hit by heavy storms both nights. Right now, this situation in W SD/NE looks to be one of those where you get an inch from a storm but a mile down the road everything is dry:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Saturday!