Good Monday afternoon!
A current look at radar shows that we are watching our storm cluster continue to work its way S and E across the state:
As we go through the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours, we are watching for the formation of another line of stronger storms in S MO. Looking at our modeled upper level energy, we can see our current area of storms in SE MO that will continue to work SE and slowly lose steam as it does so. We then see another round of strong upper level energy (deep reds) that will initiate right around the 5 to 7 PM CT timeframe. As mentioned in the AM update, this looks to bring strong damaging winds and heavy rains as the two main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but wind and heavy rains are the two highest risks:
Here is what we think this could look like on simulated radar from 5 PM CT until 7 AM CT tomorrow morning. The line looks to initiate in West Central MO along the MO/KS border and gradually build east. Our line will work to the south and should be out of the state right around sunrise tomorrow morning :
Tomorrow looks to be a pretty dry day across the state with very little chances of precip. The best shot at seeing a very spotty shower would come in SW MO, but we think even this model could be overdone in its representation of isolated showers. This is simulated radar from 7 AM CT tomorrow morning until 7 PM CT Tue evening:
Highs on Tuesday look to be in the mid to upper 70s/ low 80s for the majority of the state, the one exception being SE MO. SE MO is the area that could be reaching the mid 80s :
A look at modeled precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Tuesday. We think this model has the best handle on what precip totals may look like for the next 24 to 30 hours.We think the precip should stay in the S 2/3 of the state. While it is all dependent on where we get the exact formation of storms and where the heaviest of cells set up, we think that points south of a rough line from Kansas City to St. Louis is at play for a general 0.5 to 1.5 inches with the possibility of seeing localized areas of 2.0+ inches. Modeled totals shown below are not meant to represent our exact thoughts regarding totals down to a backyard:
Please feel free to reach out to us at [email protected] with any questions you have! Have a great rest of your Monday!