Good Sunday morning everyone! We are currently tracking an area of showers and storms working along the ND/SD border as of 8:40pm CDT. The rest of the Northern Plains are quiet but don’t expect this to last long.
The complex of storms working along the ND/SD border has had a history of becoming strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. The SPC is highlighting this disturbance for the continued potential of isolated hail through the morning. The western half of the region that they depict below can be trimmed off as these storms have pushed further east.
The storms this morning are only the beginning for what’s to come later today as additional areas of storms, especially a complex likely to work through ND this evening, progress through the area. A brief synopsis of what to expect is shown below. Definitely keep weather-aware today for scattered strong storms.
Timing this out: Convection along the ND/SD border will work east through the remainder of morning with additional redevelopment possible as it treks into far southeastern ND/far northeastern SD and west-central MN. These storms will continue to lift eastward through the afternoon and evening hours across central MN, likely being strong to perhaps severe. A wave of energy will work northeastward out of IA this afternoon and evening, sparking additional scattered showers and storms in southern MN/far southeastern SD. Storms this evening in this area may be strong. Another main feature will work out of MT late this afternoon and evening (after 3pm CDT) into western ND. This will likely develop into a Mesoscale Convection System (MCS) that progresses eastward across the remainder of ND through the evening and overnight hours. All modes of severe weather are possible with this complex of storms. New development is likely near this disturbance’s southern periphery late this evening across northern and eastern SD. Both areas will push into west-central/northwestern MN shortly after 12am CDT tonight, still having a severe potential attached to them. By 7am CDT Monday, a vast majority of the showers and storms associated with today/tonight’s disturbances will have lifted out of the region with areas of isolated showers and storms remaining across the Northern Plains. Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday:
The cold front that is sparking the severe weather today will drift southeastward tomorrow, with the areas of focus shifting into southern MN and SD. Here’s a brief synopsis for what to expect regarding Monday’s threat.
An isolated patch of showers and storms across south-central SD into northern NE during the early morning hours Monday will likely gain intensity late morning into the afternoon hours as it lifts eastward into southeastern SD and southern MN. All modes of severe weather can be expected with this complex of storms through the afternoon and evening hours as it impacts southeastern SD and southern MN. By 10pm CDT, this possible MCS will have mostly exited MN to the east, but back-building of showers and storms are possible overnight across southeastern MN. Elsewhere, another wave of upper-level energy will enter the western Dakotas Monday morning, working eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas through the day. Scattered strong storms are possible in SD as they wave pushes east late Monday afternoon and evening. These storms will likely weakening overnight with areas of showers and possibly storms remaining once again across the area heading into Tuesday morning (7am CDT). Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday:
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday: A general 0.25-1″ of rain with locally higher amounts are possible across portions of ND and central/southern MN as these waves of disturbances impact the region. Storm coverage is expected to be less in SD, though scattered showers and strong storms are likely. Not everyone will cash in on these rains given their scattered nature.
The region will remain mostly dry heading into Wednesday and Thursday with only isolated shower and storm chances expected. Here’s a look at the European Model, which is a decent blend between all the other numerical weather models:
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s can be expected south of the frontal boundary in SD and southern MN today and tomorrow before highs drop substantially Tuesday. Overnight lows will fall during this period with a slight uptick again from a southerly wind expected Wednesday night.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: The frontal boundary draped across the region will drop humidity levels across the region slowly through the period.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!