Good afternoon everyone! This post will discuss updates regarding severe weather chances through tonight into tomorrow morning. An area of showers and storms continues to lift ENE across north-central MN with a broken line of convection beginning to develop from southeast ND southward into central SD. Showers and storms are also making their way into southern MN from central/western IA as of 12:45pm CDT.
These disturbances will make their way northeastward through the afternoon hours, possibly being strong at some points as they work through the region. As discussed this morning, these won’t be the only areas to watch going forward this afternoon as additional development is anticipated. Here’s the Severe Storm Outlook from this morning with a few changes in details.
The new development across southeastern ND into central SD will work northeast through the afternoon hours, likely transforming as into a stronger complex as it progresses into north-central MN. Showers and storms will lift out of IA and southern MN late this afternoon with an additional complex of showers and storms, possibly strong, likely pushing into western IA after 5pm CDT. An intensifying disturbance in northeast MT will lift into portions of northwestern ND over the next few hours. A few discrete pop-ups will likely fire in central SD/eastern ND by the end of this loop, which runs through 7pm CDT.
Simulated radar form 7pm CDT this evening through 10am CDT Monday: Areas of strong storms will lift out of northern/central MN and eastern IA after 12am CDT tonight. The complex of storms riding eastward along the northern portions of ND will lift into northwest MN after 10pm CDT tonight. More discrete storms from central SD/eastern ND may congeal into a line of storms that tracks through northeastern SD into western MN late this evening into tonight. The NAM3km shown below wants to weaken these storms as they push through portions of MN overnight. While the severe threat will likely diminish heading into the overnight hours, I’m hesitant on how much coverage the model depicts based on a stout low-level jet cranking through the region. This would likely support the continuation of these storms as they cross the state overnight. Models continue to bring a thin, broken line of showers and storms into southern and eastern IA overnight into tomorrow morning. Due to the placement of these storms in an area that likely will have less instability at that point, these storms likely won’t be severe, but I can’t rule out the chance. By 7am CDT, a vast majority of the showers and storms associated with this afternoon’s/tonight’s disturbances will have lifted out of the region. Upper-level energy out of the Rockies will be lifting into the western Dakotas by this time, increasing shower and storm risks in those locations. A few isolated pockets of showers and storms may remain into the morning elsewhere across the Northern Plains into IA.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Areas that receive storms through this timespan can receive a general 0.25-1″ of rain with locally higher amounts in the strongest storms. The best chances for these storms appear to be in northern ND into portions of MN while isolated chances are more likely in SD and for IA after the current showers and storms work through.
For additional information regarding tomorrow’s storm threats, be sure to check out your region’s previous update sent out this morning. If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great afternoon!