Good morning everyone! A wave of showers and storms continues to work its way northeast across northeastern KS, eastern NE, far northwestern MO, and western IA as of 10:20am CDT. I expect this convection to progress further into IA through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours, likely losing some coverage in the process.
While this feature is expected to lose coverage, it will likely gain intensity with its embedded, scattered storms. The SPC has put out a Mesoscale Discussion regarding the showers and storms lifting into western and central IA. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is unlikely at this time. However, a few of these storms may produce hail and damaging wind gusts through early afternoon.
Storm coverage will be questionable across IA later this afternoon into the evening as this disturbance works out of IA. Regardless, scattered/strong storms are expected in the area once again through the evening hours. Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect regarding today’s severe weather:
Timing it out: Area of convection likely loses coverage across IA this afternoon. Additional scattered, strong storms are expected to take its place during the late afternoon and evening hours. These storms will clear out very late this evening into the overnight hours. Behind this feature, models are hinting at additional scattered development mainly after 9pm across portions of northeast KS and far eastern NE before working eastward across portions of IA and northern MO overnight. Due to storms in similar locations using up some of the instability in the area hours before, the strength of these storms will be questionable. Though, there is the potential for this thin, broken line of storms to become strong overnight into tomorrow morning. Further west in western NE, isolated strong storms are more likely, mainly after 4pm CDT before weakening later this evening into the overnight as they push into central NE. A few storms may impact northwestern KS as well late this evening.
A frontal boundary that is bringing severe weather to the Northern Plains will drop southward into tomorrow, providing additional chances for strong storms across NE and IA. Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect for tomorrow’s severe weather chances:
The thin, broken line of storms across southern/eastern IA into northwestern MO will likely fade Monday morning. A few isolated showers and storms may also remain across NE during this time. As we work into the mid-afternoon and evening hours, more isolated to widely scattered strong storms are expected across NE, with some of these storms likely persisting across portions of the state overnight. A better chance for storms currently lies across northern IA Monday afternoon where a possible Mesoscale Convection System (MCS) may develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. This feature will work eastward across northern IA during the remainder of Monday evening into the night. Redevelopment along the IA/MN border is possible Monday night into Tuesday. If this were to pan out it would likely shift southeastward through the morning hours across eastern IA.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Monday: A few patches of 0.5-1″ of rain are possible where it storms, especially across portions of IA. Given the scattered nature of the storms into tomorrow morning many will stay dry, such as southern KS into most of MO. Localized 0.5-1″ of rain is possible with the isolated storms in NE.
Rainfall over the next 7 days: IA remains to be the best location for rain chances over the next week, especially across its northern portions where multiple disturbances may trek through. As the front slowly drifts south Tuesday into Wednesday, portions of eastern KS and western MO may cash in on some rains. Areas further west will remain rather dry as storms look to stay rather isolated.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s will be prevalent through Monday. A cold front will drift southward into Tuesday bringing cooler, drier air to the northwest half of the region.
Maximum heat indices through Monday: Hot temperatures and high moisture levels will yield heat index values between 95-105ºF.
Heat Advisories have been issued for this widespread warmth across portions of MO, eastern IA and far eastern KS. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Red Flag Warnings across far western NE for lower relative humidities and strong winds will increase the fire danger in the area.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows in the 70s will be common across a large swath of the region. Lows drop substantially across the northern areas Wednesday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: Very high humidity levels continue for the Central Plains. The approaching frontal boundary will begin to drop dew points across the far western plains Monday and Tuesday.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be rather gusty as the frontal boundary drops southward across the region through Tuesday.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Jefferson City, Lincoln and Salina.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!