Good Sunday afternoon!
A check on radar shows that we are looking at scattered showers across the state with the majority of activity focused in the Minneapolis metro area:
For the rest of the evening and into the overnight, we think we can hold onto these scattered shower and storm chances as we await a cold front that looks to move into the area during the day tomorrow. Here is a look at simulated radar from 6 PM CT this evening until 1 AM CT tomorrow morning:
As we work into tomorrow, our chances for more widespread rains and higher totals work into the state as we are watching a cold front swing through the state. Below is a look at our modeled upper level energy from 1 AM CT Mon morning until 7 PM CT Monday evening. Our darker shades of yellow and red indicate higher values of energy and we can see that move into the state in the middle of the loop (early morning):
Here is a look at our favored simulated radar from 7 AM CT tomorrow morning until 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. We think that we will see this scattered activity in the pre-dawn hours but our more organized and widespread rains don’t come into the state until closer to the ~7 AM CT timeframe. This will gradually work W to E and should be near the MN/WI border by Monday evening. As this front works its way through, we think we will see some wrap around scattered showers and storms as noted in the loop below:
Highs tomorrow look to be in the upper 60s/ low 70s for much of the state. The one place that can be a little cooler is NE MN where we can see highs only reaching the low to mid 60s (brighter yellows). SE MN could see some readings in the mid 70s (darker oranges):
Precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. Overall, most of our short term, hi-resolution data is in pretty good agreement with the location and amounts of the precip totals. The reason we see are seeing more agreement is that models often have a better handle on timing and amounts when our precip comes in the form of fronts rather than storm clusters that we saw at many points this summer. Right now we favor the area circled in black for a general 0.5 to 1.5 inches with the opportunity for some localized spots to see 2.0+ inches by tomorrow evening. The southern third of MN looks to be more on the scattered side of things as the positioning of the low pressure will allow for the most precip to fall in N MN. We are favoring a scattered 0.1 to 0.4 inches for S MN:
Please reach out to us at [email protected] with any questions you have! Enjoy the rest of your Sunday afternoon/evening!