Good morning everyone! We are currently tracking a narrow swath of rain with embedded thunderstorms along the eastern half of the KS/OK border with a few isolated showers/storms pushing eastward across southwest MO. The radar loop below is current as of 10:55am CDT. Please note that the radar echoes in southeast NE/southwest IA are false returns and that precipitation is currently not falling in these areas.
The pattern becomes slightly more active today as we continue to watch the narrow band of rain across the far southern portions of our area work eastward and dissipate through the afternoon and evening hours as the low-level jet that has sustained it this morning weakens. A new disturbance will lift out of the Rockies this afternoon, providing scattered shower and storm risks to the Western Plains, mainly after 4pm CDT. An isolated storm is possible before that time. This widely scattered storm activity will lift into central NE/KS after 12am CDT. Severe weather is not anticipated but I can’t rule out gusty winds and small hail accompanying some of these storms. Simulated radar through 1am CDT Sunday:
Here are the probabilities of being impacted by storms throughout different portions of the day (provided by the SPC). Very isolated storms are expected across the region with a bulk of the activity staying across the Western Plains (western NE/KS) today. Feel free to click on the image to get a better view.
Remaining storm activity across western and central NE/KS late tonight will push ENE with coverage likely being isolated. By 7am CDT, isolated showers and storms will be located in eastern NE, northeastern KS and possibly far western IA/northwestern MO. Showers and storms will gradually increase in coverage as they push through IA during the morning and afternoon hours Sunday. These storms may clip the rest of far northern MO during this timespan. Another wave of energy will progress into the Western Plains Sunday afternoon and evening, lifting eastward across NE and northern KS overnight. These storms are set to impact IA during the morning hours Monday. Simulated radar from 1am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday:
There’s a chance for some strong storms across eastern IA Sunday afternoon and early evening before lifting out of the state late Sunday evening. Gusty winds and hail are likely to accompany a few of these storms. Based on recent model guidance, I favor the risk area shown below to be pulled westward by about 50 miles.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: A few isolated patches of 0.5-1″ of rain are possible where it storms in the Western Plains today and tonight. Localized 0.5-1.5″ of rain is possible in eastern IA Sunday afternoon and evening. A majority of the region will stay dry or receive very little rain through this time.
Here’s an updated graphic from yesterday discussing the pattern through early work week:
Rainfall over the next 7 days: The German ICON model is a good blend of all the numerical weather models. IA will be the best location for rain chances over the next week with some decent rain chances in northern MO. Areas further west will remain rather dry even with additional energy lifting into the area, though it is important to note that the model won’t pick out the heavier isolated storms in the Western Plains.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s will be prevalent across the region today through Monday. A frontal boundary will slowly drop southward into Tuesday bringing cooler, drier air to the northwest half of the region.
Maximum heat indices through the weekend: Hot temperatures and high moisture levels will yield heat index values between 95-105ºF.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows in the 70s will be common across a large swath of the Central Plains. Lows drop substantially across the northern areas Wednesday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: Very high humidity levels continue to flood northward across the region, with it likely persisting through the weekend into the coming work week. The approaching frontal boundary will begin to drop dew points across the far western plains Monday and Tuesday.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be rather gusty as the frontal boundary drops southward across the region Sunday through Tuesday.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Jefferson City, Lincoln and Salina:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!