Today’s video:
Good Thursday morning everyone! Today will prove to be a much more active day across the region as we are tracking the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. The best chance for these strong to severe thunderstorms currently resides in central SD and southern ND where the best coverage of storms are expected to be located, given its close proximity to the surface low pressure system. The main threats with the storms this afternoon and evening will be large hail and damaging winds, however a isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
A cluster of showers and storms working into the far western portions of ND will continue to progress eastward through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon. More shower and storm activity will pick up in the Western Dakotas later this afternoon, lifting into the central Dakotas this evening. This scattered development of strong storms will wrap around the surface low pressure as it continues to drift eastward into the eastern Dakotas and portions of MN overnight. Friday morning convection will be ongoing across eastern MN with a few isolated showers/storms possibly remaining westward. Here’s a look at the simulated radar into Friday morning:
Shower and storm activity present in MN Friday morning will lift out of the region by the afternoon with isolated to widely scattered storms firing near the frontal boundary in southern and eastern MN during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few of these storms may become strong with gusty winds and hail, especially in southeastern MN. These storms will dissipate/lift out of the region overnight Friday into Saturday while another weaker disturbance lifts into the Western Dakotas.
The low-level jet will aid in moderate to heavy rainfall potential overnight tonight across portions of eastern MN. Patches of heavier rain from storms wrapping-around the low pressure system are also likely in southern ND and northern SD. A general 0.5-1.5″ of rain is likely where it storms. Here’s a look at total rainfall through Saturday morning.
After the incoming storm system exits the Northern Plains Friday night another will push in to take its place Saturday. However, this wave is expected to be rather weak with some scattered rain chances in eastern ND and northern MN. The better chance for showers and storms develops late Sunday into Monday for ND, northern SD, and MN. This active pattern is expected to persist further into next week. Here’s a look at 7 day rainfall from the European Model:
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will still remain rather seasonable for most today, though some warmth will bleed into southern SD and northern ND. High temperatures will increase further across the western Dakotas Friday before an approaching frontal boundary drops temperatures in ND Saturday into Sunday. A few locations in southern SD may have heat indices approach the upper 90s Saturday and Sunday.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: 60 degree dew points will be common in the Northern Plains through the period with a few locations exceeding 70ºF Saturday and Sunday (mainly in southeast SD/southern MN).
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, Bismarck, Fargo and Sioux Falls for the next 10 days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!